Market icon

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?

Market icon

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?

$1,382,382 Vol.

Sep 30, 2025
Polymarket

$1,382,382 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$238,598 Vol.

No

October 31

$231,506 Vol.

No

November 7

$63,269 Vol.

No

November 15

$207,630 Vol.

Yes

November 21

$8,327 Vol.

Yes

November 30

$277,741 Vol.

Yes

December 31

$355,312 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection+zoom.png

Intersection Location in Myrnohrad: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection.jpeg

Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$1,382,382
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2025, 12:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Myrnohrad: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad+intersection.jpeg Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "November 15" at 100%, followed by "November 21" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?" is "November 15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "November 21" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.