**Multiple AI systems, including models from RedNote, OpenAI, DeepSeek, NVIDIA, and others, have now demonstrated gold-medal or perfect scores on the official 2026 IMO problems through verified benchmarks and post-event evaluations.** The 2026 International Mathematical Olympiad took place in July in Shanghai, with only human contestants officially participating and receiving medals. No AI system entered the live competition or received an official gold medal under IMO rules. Trader consensus at 98.3% for “No” reflects this distinction: the market resolves on whether an AI secured an official gold during the 2026 contest itself, not on retrospective benchmark performance. Recent open-weight and closed-model results (such as 30/42 or 42/42 scores on the six proof problems) show rapid capability gains in large language models and hybrid reasoning systems, but these occurred outside the formal event timeline and grading process. Key upcoming or unresolved factors remain limited at this stage. Any last-minute official IMO statement recognizing AI submissions, a change in resolution criteria, or verified participation in a parallel track could theoretically shift outcomes, though the elapsed time since the July event makes such developments improbable. The market’s skin-in-the-game pricing accurately captures the gap between demonstrated technical progress on IMO-level math and the specific criteria required for an official win.