Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams holds a commanding 95.4% implied probability as the Democratic nominee for Georgia's 5th Congressional District primary on May 19, driven by her entrenched incumbency in the solidly Democratic D+36 district, substantial fundraising edge with over $455,000 raised versus challenger Arnetress Beatty's $6,400 as of late March, and the recent withdrawals of higher-profile challengers Victor Hill—beset by prior civil rights convictions and ongoing lawsuits—and Andres Castro ahead of the March 6 filing deadline. Trader consensus reflects Williams' path-to-victory through name recognition and party support, with historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceeding 95%. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or unexpectedly high turnout favoring Beatty's economic policy platform, though barriers are significant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNikema Williams 95.4%
Victor Hill 1.8%
Andres Castro 1.5%
Arnetress Beatty <1%
Nikema Williams
95%
Victor Hill
2%
Andres Castro
2%
Arnetress Beatty
<1%
Nikema Williams 95.4%
Victor Hill 1.8%
Andres Castro 1.5%
Arnetress Beatty <1%
Nikema Williams
95%
Victor Hill
2%
Andres Castro
2%
Arnetress Beatty
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams holds a commanding 95.4% implied probability as the Democratic nominee for Georgia's 5th Congressional District primary on May 19, driven by her entrenched incumbency in the solidly Democratic D+36 district, substantial fundraising edge with over $455,000 raised versus challenger Arnetress Beatty's $6,400 as of late March, and the recent withdrawals of higher-profile challengers Victor Hill—beset by prior civil rights convictions and ongoing lawsuits—and Andres Castro ahead of the March 6 filing deadline. Trader consensus reflects Williams' path-to-victory through name recognition and party support, with historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceeding 95%. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or unexpectedly high turnout favoring Beatty's economic policy platform, though barriers are significant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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