Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race with approximately 55% of the vote to Republican challenger Marc Molinaro's 45%, as over 90% of ballots are tallied from the November 5 election in this Hudson Valley swing district. Major outlets like AP and The New York Times have projected Ryan's reelection, reflecting his incumbency edge, strong suburban turnout, and outperformance in battleground areas that propelled trader consensus to 92% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Final certification by New York officials remains pending, but the margin exceeds recount thresholds; late-counted absentee or provisional ballots pose the primary—though unlikely—scenario to challenge the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$30,200 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race with approximately 55% of the vote to Republican challenger Marc Molinaro's 45%, as over 90% of ballots are tallied from the November 5 election in this Hudson Valley swing district. Major outlets like AP and The New York Times have projected Ryan's reelection, reflecting his incumbency edge, strong suburban turnout, and outperformance in battleground areas that propelled trader consensus to 92% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Final certification by New York officials remains pending, but the margin exceeds recount thresholds; late-counted absentee or provisional ballots pose the primary—though unlikely—scenario to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$30,200End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race with approximately 55% of the vote to Republican challenger Marc Molinaro's 45%, as over 90% of ballots are tallied from the November 5 election in this Hudson Valley swing district. Major outlets like AP and The New York Times have projected Ryan's reelection, reflecting his incumbency edge, strong suburban turnout, and outperformance in battleground areas that propelled trader consensus to 92% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Final certification by New York officials remains pending, but the margin exceeds recount thresholds; late-counted absentee or provisional ballots pose the primary—though unlikely—scenario to challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,200End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race with approximately 55% of the vote to Republican challenger Marc Molinaro's 45%, as over 90% of ballots are tallied from the November 5 election in this Hudson Valley swing district. Major outlets like AP and The New York Times have projected Ryan's reelection, reflecting his incumbency edge, strong suburban turnout, and outperformance in battleground areas that propelled trader consensus to 92% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Final certification by New York officials remains pending, but the margin exceeds recount thresholds; late-counted absentee or provisional ballots pose the primary—though unlikely—scenario to challenge the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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