Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean and his long tenure since 2011. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23, and Crawford secured reelection in 2024 by roughly 46 points. Both major-party primaries were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and first-time candidate, to advance directly to the November 3, 2026 general election alongside a Libertarian. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Crawford aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen health issue could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$26,845 Vol.
$26,845 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
97%
Terri Green (D)
1%
$26,845 Vol.
$26,845 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
$16,491 Vol.
97%
Terri Green (D)
$10,354 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean and his long tenure since 2011. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23, and Crawford secured reelection in 2024 by roughly 46 points. Both major-party primaries were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and first-time candidate, to advance directly to the November 3, 2026 general election alongside a Libertarian. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Crawford aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen health issue could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,845End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean and his long tenure since 2011. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23, and Crawford secured reelection in 2024 by roughly 46 points. Both major-party primaries were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and first-time candidate, to advance directly to the November 3, 2026 general election alongside a Libertarian. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Crawford aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen health issue could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,845End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean and his long tenure since 2011. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23, and Crawford secured reelection in 2024 by roughly 46 points. Both major-party primaries were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and first-time candidate, to advance directly to the November 3, 2026 general election alongside a Libertarian. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Crawford aligns with these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen health issue could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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