Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Chris Jones (D), who won his primary with 93%, on November 3. Hill's strong fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.7 million cash on hand as of March 31—vastly outpaces Jones' $798,000 raised and $114,000 cash, reinforcing trader consensus at 86.5% for a GOP hold in the R+8 district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. No public polls show a competitive race, and absent major shifts like scandals or national waves, structural advantages favor the incumbent in this midterm cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAR-02 House Election Winner
AR-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,055 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$5,016 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Chris Jones (D), who won his primary with 93%, on November 3. Hill's strong fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.7 million cash on hand as of March 31—vastly outpaces Jones' $798,000 raised and $114,000 cash, reinforcing trader consensus at 86.5% for a GOP hold in the R+8 district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. No public polls show a competitive race, and absent major shifts like scandals or national waves, structural advantages favor the incumbent in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$7,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Chris Jones (D), who won his primary with 93%, on November 3. Hill's strong fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.7 million cash on hand as of March 31—vastly outpaces Jones' $798,000 raised and $114,000 cash, reinforcing trader consensus at 86.5% for a GOP hold in the R+8 district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. No public polls show a competitive race, and absent major shifts like scandals or national waves, structural advantages favor the incumbent in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) secured the Republican nomination in the March 3 primary with 77% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Chris Jones (D), who won his primary with 93%, on November 3. Hill's strong fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.7 million cash on hand as of March 31—vastly outpaces Jones' $798,000 raised and $114,000 cash, reinforcing trader consensus at 86.5% for a GOP hold in the R+8 district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and others. No public polls show a competitive race, and absent major shifts like scandals or national waves, structural advantages favor the incumbent in this midterm cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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