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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$494,238,167 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$494,238,167 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,946,493 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,666,832 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,289,481 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,142,353 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,643,058 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,386,319 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,796,461 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,952,163 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,031,284 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,403,027 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,352,506 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,125,919 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,770,560 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,272,816 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,991,727 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,282,161 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,271,880 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,010,405 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,978,086 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,257,873 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,170,080 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,091,901 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,367,975 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,025,837 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,382,461 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,449,767 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,721,197 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,455,409 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,717,922 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,969,376 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,818,718 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,815,495 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,263,296 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,824,804 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,622,428 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary, where Make America Healthy Again initiatives have gained traction through early regulatory reforms and broad appeal beyond traditional GOP voters, fueling speculation despite his public denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance commands 36.5% as the incumbent heir apparent with strong base support, though recent polling slippage and advisor frustrations over his media associations have eroded his once-dominant lead. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds at 20.5% have climbed sharply in the past week amid his lead on Iran war diplomacy—including airstrikes and negotiations—elevating his foreign policy credentials, attracting GOP donors plotting a draft effort, and prompting President Trump to poll confidants on Vance versus Rubio ahead of midterms that could clarify the primary path.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary, where Make America Healthy Again initiatives have gained traction through early regulatory reforms and broad appeal beyond traditional GOP voters, fueling speculation despite his public denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance commands 36.5% as the incumbent heir apparent with strong base support, though recent polling slippage and advisor frustrations over his media associations have eroded his once-dominant lead. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds at 20.5% have climbed sharply in the past week amid his lead on Iran war diplomacy—including airstrikes and negotiations—elevating his foreign policy credentials, attracting GOP donors plotting a draft effort, and prompting President Trump to poll confidants on Vance versus Rubio ahead of midterms that could clarify the primary path.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary, where Make America Healthy Again initiatives have gained traction through early regulatory reforms and broad appeal beyond traditional GOP voters, fueling speculation despite his public denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance commands 36.5% as the incumbent heir apparent with strong base support, though recent polling slippage and advisor frustrations over his media associations have eroded his once-dominant lead. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds at 20.5% have climbed sharply in the past week amid his lead on Iran war diplomacy—including airstrikes and negotiations—elevating his foreign policy credentials, attracting GOP donors plotting a draft effort, and prompting President Trump to poll confidants on Vance versus Rubio ahead of midterms that could clarify the primary path.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary, where Make America Healthy Again initiatives have gained traction through early regulatory reforms and broad appeal beyond traditional GOP voters, fueling speculation despite his public denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance commands 36.5% as the incumbent heir apparent with strong base support, though recent polling slippage and advisor frustrations over his media associations have eroded his once-dominant lead. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's odds at 20.5% have climbed sharply in the past week amid his lead on Iran war diplomacy—including airstrikes and negotiations—elevating his foreign policy credentials, attracting GOP donors plotting a draft effort, and prompting President Trump to poll confidants on Vance versus Rubio ahead of midterms that could clarify the primary path.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $494.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.