Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,797,058 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,797,058 Vol.

Market icon

J.D. Vance

$6,879,397 Vol.

37%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$6,628,099 Vol.

21%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$7,265,521 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$7,962,732 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$5,608,485 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,331,096 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$2,740,397 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,350,190 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$5,284,044 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ted Cruz

$14,042,250 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$21,709,031 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$9,167,426 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,788 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$7,233,817 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$17,202,717 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,018,155 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,947,116 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Brian Kemp

$12,902,405 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Matt Gaetz

$15,184,560 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$4,105,061 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Katie Britt

$24,299,578 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kristi Noem

$27,978,676 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tom Brady

$28,307,940 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Joe Kent

$1,751,460 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$23,377,643 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$1,660,174 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Byron Donalds

$33,147,736 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elise Stefanik

$21,399,423 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Josh Hawley

$15,624,584 Vol.

1%

Market icon

John Thune

$28,914,563 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Steve Bannon

$14,701,609 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Erika Kirk

$10,740,097 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mike Pence

$32,534,907 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), reflecting bets on their high-visibility roles in President Trump's second-term administration amid his two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership, marked by February 2026 staff reshuffles and one-year MAHA agenda push against chronic disease and Big Pharma influence, has boosted his crossover appeal despite his prior statements prioritizing health policy over a 2028 run. Vance holds strong as heir apparent but saw slips in recent straw polls, while Rubio gains from diplomatic wins on Iran tensions and Venezuela policy in early 2026; CPAC's late-March straw poll gave Vance 53% support, underscoring a competitive primary path ahead of 2026 midterms.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), reflecting bets on their high-visibility roles in President Trump's second-term administration amid his two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership, marked by February 2026 staff reshuffles and one-year MAHA agenda push against chronic disease and Big Pharma influence, has boosted his crossover appeal despite his prior statements prioritizing health policy over a 2028 run. Vance holds strong as heir apparent but saw slips in recent straw polls, while Rubio gains from diplomatic wins on Iran tensions and Venezuela policy in early 2026; CPAC's late-March straw poll gave Vance 53% support, underscoring a competitive primary path ahead of 2026 midterms.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), reflecting bets on their high-visibility roles in President Trump's second-term administration amid his two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership, marked by February 2026 staff reshuffles and one-year MAHA agenda push against chronic disease and Big Pharma influence, has boosted his crossover appeal despite his prior statements prioritizing health policy over a 2028 run. Vance holds strong as heir apparent but saw slips in recent straw polls, while Rubio gains from diplomatic wins on Iran tensions and Venezuela policy in early 2026; CPAC's late-March straw poll gave Vance 53% support, underscoring a competitive primary path ahead of 2026 midterms.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), reflecting bets on their high-visibility roles in President Trump's second-term administration amid his two-term limit under the 22nd Amendment. RFK Jr.'s HHS leadership, marked by February 2026 staff reshuffles and one-year MAHA agenda push against chronic disease and Big Pharma influence, has boosted his crossover appeal despite his prior statements prioritizing health policy over a 2028 run. Vance holds strong as heir apparent but saw slips in recent straw polls, while Rubio gains from diplomatic wins on Iran tensions and Venezuela policy in early 2026; CPAC's late-March straw poll gave Vance 53% support, underscoring a competitive primary path ahead of 2026 midterms.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $491.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.