Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March release, boasting superior reasoning and coding benchmarks that have kept it ahead of rivals, fueling the 73% trader consensus for end-of-April dominance. No major challengers have emerged in the past week to displace it; xAI's Grok-1.5V multimodal release on April 12 improved vision tasks but failed to crack the top text-based rankings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags at a distance. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo remains competitive yet trailing, with traders betting on Opus's stability through month-end absent surprise announcements. Upcoming Google I/O on May 14 offers no immediate threat to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 72%
Mistral 5.1%
Google 5%
xAI 4.3%
$279,783 Vol.
$279,783 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
Mistral
5%
5%
xAI
4%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Moonshot
2%
ByteDance
2%
Amazon
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Mistral 5.1%
Google 5%
xAI 4.3%
$279,783 Vol.
$279,783 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$9,438 Vol.
72%
Mistral
$58,684 Vol.
5%
$19,177 Vol.
5%
xAI
$5,158 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$18,086 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$72,587 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$55,786 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$3,834 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$4,680 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$22,140 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$3,884 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$3,540 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$3,595 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March release, boasting superior reasoning and coding benchmarks that have kept it ahead of rivals, fueling the 73% trader consensus for end-of-April dominance. No major challengers have emerged in the past week to displace it; xAI's Grok-1.5V multimodal release on April 12 improved vision tasks but failed to crack the top text-based rankings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags at a distance. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo remains competitive yet trailing, with traders betting on Opus's stability through month-end absent surprise announcements. Upcoming Google I/O on May 14 offers no immediate threat to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$279,783End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March release, boasting superior reasoning and coding benchmarks that have kept it ahead of rivals, fueling the 73% trader consensus for end-of-April dominance. No major challengers have emerged in the past week to displace it; xAI's Grok-1.5V multimodal release on April 12 improved vision tasks but failed to crack the top text-based rankings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags at a distance. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo remains competitive yet trailing, with traders betting on Opus's stability through month-end absent surprise announcements. Upcoming Google I/O on May 14 offers no immediate threat to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$279,783End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March release, boasting superior reasoning and coding benchmarks that have kept it ahead of rivals, fueling the 73% trader consensus for end-of-April dominance. No major challengers have emerged in the past week to displace it; xAI's Grok-1.5V multimodal release on April 12 improved vision tasks but failed to crack the top text-based rankings, while Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags at a distance. OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo remains competitive yet trailing, with traders betting on Opus's stability through month-end absent surprise announcements. Upcoming Google I/O on May 14 offers no immediate threat to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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