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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.4%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$492,094,246 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.4%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$492,094,246 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,889,954 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,630,549 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,269,637 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,980,909 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,615,293 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,331,924 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,741,116 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,988,303 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,357,241 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,292,089 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,066,957 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,722,306 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,181,171 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,941,409 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,234,781 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,205,951 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,026,178 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,950,669 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,902,483 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,107,202 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,300,433 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,978,987 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,314,573 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,752,476 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,387,369 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,208,207 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,661,827 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,152,922 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,401,053 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,659,682 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,914,750 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,762,560 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,748,398 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,545,626 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent Trump administration role on health policy and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 affirmation of his intent to run, signaling anti-establishment appeal in an open primary after President Trump's term limits bar a third bid. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, reinforced by his weekend CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among conservatives, underscoring incumbency advantage as heir apparent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects a surge from donor "draft" efforts, foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, and Trump's reported queries favoring his electability, tightening the race despite polls like JL Partners showing Vance's broader lead.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent Trump administration role on health policy and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 affirmation of his intent to run, signaling anti-establishment appeal in an open primary after President Trump's term limits bar a third bid. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, reinforced by his weekend CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among conservatives, underscoring incumbency advantage as heir apparent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects a surge from donor "draft" efforts, foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, and Trump's reported queries favoring his electability, tightening the race despite polls like JL Partners showing Vance's broader lead.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent Trump administration role on health policy and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 affirmation of his intent to run, signaling anti-establishment appeal in an open primary after President Trump's term limits bar a third bid. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, reinforced by his weekend CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among conservatives, underscoring incumbency advantage as heir apparent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects a surge from donor "draft" efforts, foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, and Trump's reported queries favoring his electability, tightening the race despite polls like JL Partners showing Vance's broader lead.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his prominent Trump administration role on health policy and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 affirmation of his intent to run, signaling anti-establishment appeal in an open primary after President Trump's term limits bar a third bid. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, reinforced by his weekend CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among conservatives, underscoring incumbency advantage as heir apparent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects a surge from donor "draft" efforts, foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, and Trump's reported queries favoring his electability, tightening the race despite polls like JL Partners showing Vance's broader lead.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $492.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.