Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 47.4% to win the La Paz Department Governor race in Bolivia, with René Yahuasi Calamani close behind at 39.4%, reflecting tight polling averages amid the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party's deep internal rift between President Luis Arce's faction and Evo Morales supporters—Yahuasi aligned with the latter. No major catalysts have emerged in the past week to widen the gap, as candidate registrations concluded without disqualifications and campaign momentum remains steady, but potential separation could arise from upcoming regional debates, endorsements by national figures like Arce or Morales, or flare-ups in local issues such as water access, transportation strikes, or Aymara indigenous bloc mobilization ahead of the vote. Germán Riveros trails at 21.1% as a potential spoiler for splinter votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 50.0%
Santos Quispe Quispe 8.9%
Felix Patzi 6.7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas 4.4%
$13,065 Vol.
$13,065 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
52%
Santos Quispe Quispe
9%
Felix Patzi
7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
4%
Rafael Quispe Flores
2%
Germán Riveros
19%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Richard Andrés Gómez
9%
Gualberto Cusi
<1%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Fidel Chura
14%
René Yahuasi Calamani
40%
Luis Antonio Revilla 50.0%
Santos Quispe Quispe 8.9%
Felix Patzi 6.7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas 4.4%
$13,065 Vol.
$13,065 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
52%
Santos Quispe Quispe
9%
Felix Patzi
7%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
4%
Rafael Quispe Flores
2%
Germán Riveros
19%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Richard Andrés Gómez
9%
Gualberto Cusi
<1%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Fidel Chura
14%
René Yahuasi Calamani
40%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 47.4% to win the La Paz Department Governor race in Bolivia, with René Yahuasi Calamani close behind at 39.4%, reflecting tight polling averages amid the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party's deep internal rift between President Luis Arce's faction and Evo Morales supporters—Yahuasi aligned with the latter. No major catalysts have emerged in the past week to widen the gap, as candidate registrations concluded without disqualifications and campaign momentum remains steady, but potential separation could arise from upcoming regional debates, endorsements by national figures like Arce or Morales, or flare-ups in local issues such as water access, transportation strikes, or Aymara indigenous bloc mobilization ahead of the vote. Germán Riveros trails at 21.1% as a potential spoiler for splinter votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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