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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$518,740,962 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$518,740,962 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$9,866,272 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,869,297 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,481,461 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,076,100 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,580,228 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,015,471 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,937,610 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,688,612 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,467,816 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,147 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,526 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,869,666 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,817,760 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,783 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,840 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,124,248 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,631,155 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,318,428 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,412,102 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,343,976 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,201,338 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,484,238 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,847,246 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,757,567 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,532,571 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,337,404 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,234,010 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,661,484 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,943,325 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,554,892 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,680,289 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,751,915 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,384,804 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,255,271 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,806,692 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, propelled by his role as HHS Secretary leading the Make America Healthy Again movement and his recent announcement of an aggressive midterm campaign schedule stumping for GOP candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, with odds dropping amid President Trump's slumping approval ratings dragging down his heir-apparent status, as noted in recent analyses. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds 20%, buoyed by diplomatic achievements and donor interest as a potential establishment alternative. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, the crowded primary field reflects uncertainty, with 2026 midterms poised to test candidates' turnout among key voting blocs like MAHA supporters and MAGA base.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$518,740,962
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, propelled by his role as HHS Secretary leading the Make America Healthy Again movement and his recent announcement of an aggressive midterm campaign schedule stumping for GOP candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, with odds dropping amid President Trump's slumping approval ratings dragging down his heir-apparent status, as noted in recent analyses. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds 20%, buoyed by diplomatic achievements and donor interest as a potential establishment alternative. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, the crowded primary field reflects uncertainty, with 2026 midterms poised to test candidates' turnout among key voting blocs like MAHA supporters and MAGA base.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$518,740,962
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $518.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.