The March 17 withdrawal deadline for Texas’s Republican Senate primary runoff passed without Ken Paxton removing his name from the ballot against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, anchoring trader expectations that he will stay in the race. Paxton’s earlier conditional statement linking any potential exit to Senate passage of the SAVE America Act has produced no further movement, and both candidates have continued active campaigning and fundraising. This procedural lock-in, combined with the absence of subsequent announcements or external pressures sufficient to alter his position, has produced the current near-certain consensus reflected in market pricing. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, personal health event, or unusually strong intervention by President Trump remain the primary realistic paths that could still prompt reconsideration before voters decide the nomination.