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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$493,855,211 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$493,855,211 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,930,045 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,657,031 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,288,255 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,122,165 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,635,418 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,786,136 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,364,846 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,944,034 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,024,668 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,392,191 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,345,214 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,108,440 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,759,362 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,267,472 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,983,226 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,272,657 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,263,189 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,002,004 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,969,383 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,086,708 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,156,861 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,359,396 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,016,503 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,372,928 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,248,686 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,440,375 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,710,657 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,219,078 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,440,978 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,710,421 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,958,734 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,803,300 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,803,681 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,813,838 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,612,468 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his strong reception from the MAGA base at the March 28 Conservative Political Action Conference and HHS achievements like insulin price reductions and Medicare fraud crackdowns, despite his prior denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, with odds slipping to recent lows amid reports of internal party doubts and speculation he may delay a bid. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 20.4%, gaining from his high-profile role in Venezuela policy successes and donor preferences over Vance in private Trump polling. With President Trump's two-term limit barring a reelection bid, the market reflects early jockeying among administration insiders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his strong reception from the MAGA base at the March 28 Conservative Political Action Conference and HHS achievements like insulin price reductions and Medicare fraud crackdowns, despite his prior denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, with odds slipping to recent lows amid reports of internal party doubts and speculation he may delay a bid. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 20.4%, gaining from his high-profile role in Venezuela policy successes and donor preferences over Vance in private Trump polling. With President Trump's two-term limit barring a reelection bid, the market reflects early jockeying among administration insiders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his strong reception from the MAGA base at the March 28 Conservative Political Action Conference and HHS achievements like insulin price reductions and Medicare fraud crackdowns, despite his prior denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, with odds slipping to recent lows amid reports of internal party doubts and speculation he may delay a bid. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 20.4%, gaining from his high-profile role in Venezuela policy successes and donor preferences over Vance in private Trump polling. With President Trump's two-term limit barring a reelection bid, the market reflects early jockeying among administration insiders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his strong reception from the MAGA base at the March 28 Conservative Political Action Conference and HHS achievements like insulin price reductions and Medicare fraud crackdowns, despite his prior denials of a run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, with odds slipping to recent lows amid reports of internal party doubts and speculation he may delay a bid. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 20.4%, gaining from his high-profile role in Venezuela policy successes and donor preferences over Vance in private Trump polling. With President Trump's two-term limit barring a reelection bid, the market reflects early jockeying among administration insiders ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $493.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.