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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$492,487,858 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$492,487,858 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,898,579 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,635,369 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,283,141 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,018,291 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,621,851 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,338,078 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,748,371 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,919,721 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,994,678 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,365,640 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,301,402 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,077,819 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,732,484 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,191,291 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,948,409 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,240,741 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,213,802 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,037,838 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,957,858 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,915,866 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,117,932 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,310,924 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,985,776 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,330,247 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,761,222 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,394,257 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,213,401 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,673,149 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,172,379 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,406,516 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,682,302 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,928,044 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,770,455 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,760,735 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,565,765 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, propelled by his high-profile role leading Health and Human Services with the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, including recent praise for the administration's competence and anti-corporate reform push amid chronic disease debates. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% following reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid and cautious stance during Iran escalations, eroding some momentum despite CPAC straw poll leads. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects surging donor preference over Vance in Trump-hosted meetings and hawkish diplomacy in the Iran conflict, heightening competition ahead of 2026 midterms.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, propelled by his high-profile role leading Health and Human Services with the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, including recent praise for the administration's competence and anti-corporate reform push amid chronic disease debates. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% following reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid and cautious stance during Iran escalations, eroding some momentum despite CPAC straw poll leads. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects surging donor preference over Vance in Trump-hosted meetings and hawkish diplomacy in the Iran conflict, heightening competition ahead of 2026 midterms.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, propelled by his high-profile role leading Health and Human Services with the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, including recent praise for the administration's competence and anti-corporate reform push amid chronic disease debates. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% following reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid and cautious stance during Iran escalations, eroding some momentum despite CPAC straw poll leads. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects surging donor preference over Vance in Trump-hosted meetings and hawkish diplomacy in the Iran conflict, heightening competition ahead of 2026 midterms.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, propelled by his high-profile role leading Health and Human Services with the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, including recent praise for the administration's competence and anti-corporate reform push amid chronic disease debates. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% following reports of his indecision on a 2028 bid and cautious stance during Iran escalations, eroding some momentum despite CPAC straw poll leads. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects surging donor preference over Vance in Trump-hosted meetings and hawkish diplomacy in the Iran conflict, heightening competition ahead of 2026 midterms.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $492.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.