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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$491,828,877 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$491,828,877 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,879,397 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,628,108 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,267,115 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,963,555 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,608,850 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,331,154 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,740,771 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,351,519 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,284,044 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,044,217 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,710,242 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,175,506 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,788 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,233,822 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,202,717 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,021,068 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,948,365 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,902,478 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,184,560 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,105,112 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,300,382 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,978,746 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,308,819 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,751,466 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,379,269 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,660,174 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,148,270 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,399,423 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,642,011 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,914,564 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,702,538 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,741,468 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,536,158 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20.5%), diverging from traditional polling averages where Vance holds a commanding lead. RFK Jr.'s surge stems from his high-profile HHS role advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms resonating with the GOP base, coupled with March speculation from family members affirming a likely run despite his prior denials. Recent CPAC straw poll (March 28) reaffirmed Vance's conservative activist support while Rubio gained amid reports of President Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors and GOP donors plotting a "draft Rubio" push elevated by foreign policy handling in the Iran conflict. With primaries over 20 months away, Trump's endorsement remains the pivotal factor amid high uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20.5%), diverging from traditional polling averages where Vance holds a commanding lead. RFK Jr.'s surge stems from his high-profile HHS role advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms resonating with the GOP base, coupled with March speculation from family members affirming a likely run despite his prior denials. Recent CPAC straw poll (March 28) reaffirmed Vance's conservative activist support while Rubio gained amid reports of President Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors and GOP donors plotting a "draft Rubio" push elevated by foreign policy handling in the Iran conflict. With primaries over 20 months away, Trump's endorsement remains the pivotal factor amid high uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20.5%), diverging from traditional polling averages where Vance holds a commanding lead. RFK Jr.'s surge stems from his high-profile HHS role advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms resonating with the GOP base, coupled with March speculation from family members affirming a likely run despite his prior denials. Recent CPAC straw poll (March 28) reaffirmed Vance's conservative activist support while Rubio gained amid reports of President Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors and GOP donors plotting a "draft Rubio" push elevated by foreign policy handling in the Iran conflict. With primaries over 20 months away, Trump's endorsement remains the pivotal factor amid high uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.5%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20.5%), diverging from traditional polling averages where Vance holds a commanding lead. RFK Jr.'s surge stems from his high-profile HHS role advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) reforms resonating with the GOP base, coupled with March speculation from family members affirming a likely run despite his prior denials. Recent CPAC straw poll (March 28) reaffirmed Vance's conservative activist support while Rubio gained amid reports of President Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors and GOP donors plotting a "draft Rubio" push elevated by foreign policy handling in the Iran conflict. With primaries over 20 months away, Trump's endorsement remains the pivotal factor amid high uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $491.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.