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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$518,381,109 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$518,381,109 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$9,859,031 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,868,936 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,481,418 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,060,549 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,580,228 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,015,304 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,937,378 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,688,607 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,467,816 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,147 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,501 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,812,488 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,859,535 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,783 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,840 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,124,248 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,628,952 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,317,590 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,397,578 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,343,042 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,201,333 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,404,286 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,846,955 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,757,567 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,532,571 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,337,311 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,234,010 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,640,289 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,853,515 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,542,923 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,680,197 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,751,915 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,384,510 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,195,167 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,775,073 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With President Donald Trump's second term barring his 2028 reelection under constitutional term limits, Polymarket traders price HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Republican presidential nominee frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his high-profile role in health policy reforms resonating with the GOP base on issues like vaccine skepticism and regulatory overhaul. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, his odds dipping below recent Focaldata (52%) and CPAC straw poll (53%) leads amid speculation over his 2028 ambitions and foreign policy tensions, including Iran escalations where President Trump reportedly weighs Vance against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose odds have surged to 20% on diplomatic visibility. Midterm elections in November 2026 loom as a key test for early primary positioning among incumbents and cabinet figures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$518,381,109
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With President Donald Trump's second term barring his 2028 reelection under constitutional term limits, Polymarket traders price HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Republican presidential nominee frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his high-profile role in health policy reforms resonating with the GOP base on issues like vaccine skepticism and regulatory overhaul. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, his odds dipping below recent Focaldata (52%) and CPAC straw poll (53%) leads amid speculation over his 2028 ambitions and foreign policy tensions, including Iran escalations where President Trump reportedly weighs Vance against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose odds have surged to 20% on diplomatic visibility. Midterm elections in November 2026 loom as a key test for early primary positioning among incumbents and cabinet figures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$518,381,109
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $518.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.