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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$492,872,925 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$492,872,925 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,910,145 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,642,298 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,285,915 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,056,959 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,626,817 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,759,278 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,345,731 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,928,944 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,003,604 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,372,312 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,313,516 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,088,851 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,736,988 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,199,415 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,959,751 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,248,818 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,232,130 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,052,466 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,965,313 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,931,041 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,130,781 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,323,952 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,991,877 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,340,457 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,223,475 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,769,169 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,411,439 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,687,134 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,185,042 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,417,162 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,692,494 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,935,371 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,781,315 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,774,499 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,576,770 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow favorite at 49% to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, and speculation fueled by family claims like cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" bid—despite RFK's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 36.5%, buoyed by strong showings in recent JL Partners (53%) and CPAC straw polls but seeing odds dip amid reports of Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects rising donor "draft" efforts and praise from Trump for his handling of Iran tensions and Venezuela operations, positioning a tight three-way contest ahead of early primary maneuvering.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow favorite at 49% to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, and speculation fueled by family claims like cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" bid—despite RFK's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 36.5%, buoyed by strong showings in recent JL Partners (53%) and CPAC straw polls but seeing odds dip amid reports of Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects rising donor "draft" efforts and praise from Trump for his handling of Iran tensions and Venezuela operations, positioning a tight three-way contest ahead of early primary maneuvering.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow favorite at 49% to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, and speculation fueled by family claims like cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" bid—despite RFK's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 36.5%, buoyed by strong showings in recent JL Partners (53%) and CPAC straw polls but seeing odds dip amid reports of Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects rising donor "draft" efforts and praise from Trump for his handling of Iran tensions and Venezuela operations, positioning a tight three-way contest ahead of early primary maneuvering.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow favorite at 49% to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, and speculation fueled by family claims like cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" bid—despite RFK's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 36.5%, buoyed by strong showings in recent JL Partners (53%) and CPAC straw polls but seeing odds dip amid reports of Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.4% reflects rising donor "draft" efforts and praise from Trump for his handling of Iran tensions and Venezuela operations, positioning a tight three-way contest ahead of early primary maneuvering.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $492.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.