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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,810,072 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,810,072 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,879,397 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,628,099 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,265,744 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,963,307 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,608,807 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,331,154 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,740,398 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,350,519 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,284,044 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,044,196 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,709,096 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,167,426 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,788 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,233,817 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,202,717 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,018,796 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,947,179 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,902,468 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,184,560 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,105,112 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,299,578 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,978,677 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,307,941 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,751,461 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,378,761 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,660,174 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,148,270 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,399,423 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,624,584 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,914,564 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,702,538 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,740,354 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,535,791 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary and early successes in advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives on food safety and public health, despite past denials of presidential ambitions. Vice President J.D. Vance holds second at 36.5% as the presumptive heir apparent amid constitutional term limits barring President Trump's reelection, though his odds have recently slipped below 37% following reports of internal GOP discussions favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 20.5% after gaining ground from President Trump's private polling of donors and advisers comparing him directly to Vance, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party dynamics.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary and early successes in advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives on food safety and public health, despite past denials of presidential ambitions. Vice President J.D. Vance holds second at 36.5% as the presumptive heir apparent amid constitutional term limits barring President Trump's reelection, though his odds have recently slipped below 37% following reports of internal GOP discussions favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 20.5% after gaining ground from President Trump's private polling of donors and advisers comparing him directly to Vance, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary and early successes in advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives on food safety and public health, despite past denials of presidential ambitions. Vice President J.D. Vance holds second at 36.5% as the presumptive heir apparent amid constitutional term limits barring President Trump's reelection, though his odds have recently slipped below 37% following reports of internal GOP discussions favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 20.5% after gaining ground from President Trump's private polling of donors and advisers comparing him directly to Vance, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party dynamics.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role as Health and Human Services Secretary and early successes in advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives on food safety and public health, despite past denials of presidential ambitions. Vice President J.D. Vance holds second at 36.5% as the presumptive heir apparent amid constitutional term limits barring President Trump's reelection, though his odds have recently slipped below 37% following reports of internal GOP discussions favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 20.5% after gaining ground from President Trump's private polling of donors and advisers comparing him directly to Vance, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $491.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.