Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, surpassing Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20%), driven by RFK Jr.'s high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) priorities and his recent deployment to swing states stumping for GOP midterm candidates. Vance's share fell below 37% last week amid speculation he has yet to commit to a run, while Rubio surged on reports President Trump polled major donors favoring him over Vance. As 2026 midterms loom, strong showings in battleground primaries could further shift early positioning in this open-field race post-Trump term limits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance 36.8%
Marco Rubio 19.7%
Tucker Carlson 4.7%
Ron DeSantis 2.6%
$519,223,603 Vol.
$519,223,603 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Earn 4%
J.D. Vance
37%
Marco Rubio
20%
Tucker Carlson
5%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Donald Trump
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Thomas Massie
2%
Glenn Youngkin
2%
Rand Paul
1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Elon Musk
1%
Nikki Haley
1%
Ted Cruz
1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
1%
Greg Abbott
1%
Brian Kemp
1%
Eric Trump
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Josh Hawley
1%
Katie Britt
1%
Tom Brady
1%
Matt Gaetz
1%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Elise Stefanik
1%
John Thune
1%
Kristi Noem
1%
Joe Kent
1%
Steve Bannon
1%
Kim Kardashian
1%
Byron Donalds
1%
Erika Kirk
1%
Mike Pence
1%
J.D. Vance 36.8%
Marco Rubio 19.7%
Tucker Carlson 4.7%
Ron DeSantis 2.6%
$519,223,603 Vol.
$519,223,603 Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Earn 4%
J.D. Vance
$9,884,721 Vol.
37%
Marco Rubio
$6,872,113 Vol.
20%
Tucker Carlson
$7,482,123 Vol.
5%
Ron DeSantis
$10,113,299 Vol.
3%
Donald Trump
$6,580,273 Vol.
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
$6,015,529 Vol.
2%
Thomas Massie
$2,938,074 Vol.
2%
Glenn Youngkin
$5,688,612 Vol.
2%
Rand Paul
$16,467,816 Vol.
1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
$12,997,207 Vol.
1%
Ivanka Trump
$5,475,557 Vol.
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$10,829,768 Vol.
1%
Elon Musk
$23,893,579 Vol.
1%
Nikki Haley
$7,673,792 Vol.
1%
Ted Cruz
$14,688,840 Vol.
1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$4,124,248 Vol.
1%
Greg Abbott
$17,631,155 Vol.
1%
Brian Kemp
$13,318,513 Vol.
1%
Eric Trump
$4,412,102 Vol.
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$28,343,976 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$11,281,570 Vol.
1%
Josh Hawley
$16,484,409 Vol.
1%
Katie Britt
$24,848,209 Vol.
1%
Tom Brady
$28,757,567 Vol.
1%
Matt Gaetz
$15,562,266 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$2,338,053 Vol.
1%
Elise Stefanik
$22,234,010 Vol.
1%
John Thune
$29,691,532 Vol.
1%
Kristi Noem
$29,014,961 Vol.
1%
Joe Kent
$2,574,245 Vol.
1%
Steve Bannon
$15,712,341 Vol.
1%
Kim Kardashian
$23,766,734 Vol.
1%
Byron Donalds
$34,408,743 Vol.
1%
Erika Kirk
$12,286,120 Vol.
1%
Mike Pence
$34,839,358 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, surpassing Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20%), driven by RFK Jr.'s high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) priorities and his recent deployment to swing states stumping for GOP midterm candidates. Vance's share fell below 37% last week amid speculation he has yet to commit to a run, while Rubio surged on reports President Trump polled major donors favoring him over Vance. As 2026 midterms loom, strong showings in battleground primaries could further shift early positioning in this open-field race post-Trump term limits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$519,223,603End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, surpassing Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20%), driven by RFK Jr.'s high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) priorities and his recent deployment to swing states stumping for GOP midterm candidates. Vance's share fell below 37% last week amid speculation he has yet to commit to a run, while Rubio surged on reports President Trump polled major donors favoring him over Vance. As 2026 midterms loom, strong showings in battleground primaries could further shift early positioning in this open-field race post-Trump term limits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,223,603End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, surpassing Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (20%), driven by RFK Jr.'s high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) priorities and his recent deployment to swing states stumping for GOP midterm candidates. Vance's share fell below 37% last week amid speculation he has yet to commit to a run, while Rubio surged on reports President Trump polled major donors favoring him over Vance. As 2026 midterms loom, strong showings in battleground primaries could further shift early positioning in this open-field race post-Trump term limits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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