Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead with Elo ratings around 1501-1502—well ahead of competitors like xAI's Grok 4 (trailing at ~1490s) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and agentic tasks, solidifying its position amid no major rival announcements in March. xAI and Google linger at 7.4% and 7.0% due to rapid iteration potential, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants lag post-delayed updates; watch for pre-April releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 75%
xAI 7.4%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.4%
$335,320 Vol.
$335,320 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
xAI
7%
7%
OpenAI
3%
Mistral
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 75%
xAI 7.4%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.4%
$335,320 Vol.
$335,320 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$11,503 Vol.
75%
xAI
$6,580 Vol.
7%
$20,513 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$49,919 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$60,298 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$76,279 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$56,803 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$4,775 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$23,071 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$4,815 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$12,255 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,358 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,151 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead with Elo ratings around 1501-1502—well ahead of competitors like xAI's Grok 4 (trailing at ~1490s) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and agentic tasks, solidifying its position amid no major rival announcements in March. xAI and Google linger at 7.4% and 7.0% due to rapid iteration potential, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants lag post-delayed updates; watch for pre-April releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$335,320End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead with Elo ratings around 1501-1502—well ahead of competitors like xAI's Grok 4 (trailing at ~1490s) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and agentic tasks, solidifying its position amid no major rival announcements in March. xAI and Google linger at 7.4% and 7.0% due to rapid iteration potential, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants lag post-delayed updates; watch for pre-April releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$335,320End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of April, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead with Elo ratings around 1501-1502—well ahead of competitors like xAI's Grok 4 (trailing at ~1490s) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and agentic tasks, solidifying its position amid no major rival announcements in March. xAI and Google linger at 7.4% and 7.0% due to rapid iteration potential, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants lag post-delayed updates; watch for pre-April releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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