Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category by end of April, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance since its June release, where it has consistently topped ELO rankings with superior instruction-following and stylistic nuance in blind user evaluations. Recent voting surges over the past week reinforce this lead, outpacing challengers amid minimal updates from rivals; xAI's Grok-2 sits at 7.5% following its August benchmark gains but trails in style control, while Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-4o lag at 7.0% and 3.9% due to inconsistent category performance. Key watchpoints include potential pre-April model refreshes from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, though historical Arena shifts favor incumbents without major releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 75%
Google 7%
xAI 6.3%
OpenAI 3.6%
$331,342 Vol.
$331,342 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
7%
xAI
6%
OpenAI
4%
Mistral
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 7%
xAI 6.3%
OpenAI 3.6%
$331,342 Vol.
$331,342 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$11,297 Vol.
75%
$20,493 Vol.
7%
xAI
$6,400 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$49,887 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$60,248 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$73,502 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$56,767 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$4,720 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$23,025 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$11,822 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$4,770 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,307 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category by end of April, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance since its June release, where it has consistently topped ELO rankings with superior instruction-following and stylistic nuance in blind user evaluations. Recent voting surges over the past week reinforce this lead, outpacing challengers amid minimal updates from rivals; xAI's Grok-2 sits at 7.5% following its August benchmark gains but trails in style control, while Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-4o lag at 7.0% and 3.9% due to inconsistent category performance. Key watchpoints include potential pre-April model refreshes from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, though historical Arena shifts favor incumbents without major releases.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$331,342End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category by end of April, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance since its June release, where it has consistently topped ELO rankings with superior instruction-following and stylistic nuance in blind user evaluations. Recent voting surges over the past week reinforce this lead, outpacing challengers amid minimal updates from rivals; xAI's Grok-2 sits at 7.5% following its August benchmark gains but trails in style control, while Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-4o lag at 7.0% and 3.9% due to inconsistent category performance. Key watchpoints include potential pre-April model refreshes from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, though historical Arena shifts favor incumbents without major releases.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$331,342End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Anthropic at 74.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category by end of April, driven by Claude 3.5 Sonnet's sustained dominance since its June release, where it has consistently topped ELO rankings with superior instruction-following and stylistic nuance in blind user evaluations. Recent voting surges over the past week reinforce this lead, outpacing challengers amid minimal updates from rivals; xAI's Grok-2 sits at 7.5% following its August benchmark gains but trails in style control, while Google's Gemini and OpenAI's GPT-4o lag at 7.0% and 3.9% due to inconsistent category performance. Key watchpoints include potential pre-April model refreshes from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, though historical Arena shifts favor incumbents without major releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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