Amid the US-Iran war launched by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects cautious optimism on de-escalation despite persistent military actions. Last week, the Trump administration conveyed a 15-point ceasefire plan via intermediaries—demanding curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missiles, and proxies—which Tehran rejected as "maximalist" but countered with its own terms, keeping diplomatic channels open through Oman, Egypt, and potential Pakistani-hosted talks. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days on March 26, signaling indirect negotiations are progressing amid Iranian missile attacks on Israel and US bases. Ongoing airstrikes, sanctions pressures, and mediation outcomes will dictate near-term probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$61,473,587 Vol.
March 31
2%
April 7
8%
April 15
16%
April 30
31%
May 31
47%
June 30
59%
December 31
75%
$61,473,587 Vol.
March 31
$38,845,427 Vol.
2%
April 7
$1,406,286 Vol.
8%
April 15
$5,962,612 Vol.
16%
April 30
$6,658,062 Vol.
31%
May 31
$2,249,463 Vol.
47%
June 30
$2,347,137 Vol.
59%
December 31
$510,683 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid the US-Iran war launched by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects cautious optimism on de-escalation despite persistent military actions. Last week, the Trump administration conveyed a 15-point ceasefire plan via intermediaries—demanding curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missiles, and proxies—which Tehran rejected as "maximalist" but countered with its own terms, keeping diplomatic channels open through Oman, Egypt, and potential Pakistani-hosted talks. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days on March 26, signaling indirect negotiations are progressing amid Iranian missile attacks on Israel and US bases. Ongoing airstrikes, sanctions pressures, and mediation outcomes will dictate near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,473,587Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid the US-Iran war launched by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects cautious optimism on de-escalation despite persistent military actions. Last week, the Trump administration conveyed a 15-point ceasefire plan via intermediaries—demanding curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missiles, and proxies—which Tehran rejected as "maximalist" but countered with its own terms, keeping diplomatic channels open through Oman, Egypt, and potential Pakistani-hosted talks. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days on March 26, signaling indirect negotiations are progressing amid Iranian missile attacks on Israel and US bases. Ongoing airstrikes, sanctions pressures, and mediation outcomes will dictate near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,473,587Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid the US-Iran war launched by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects cautious optimism on de-escalation despite persistent military actions. Last week, the Trump administration conveyed a 15-point ceasefire plan via intermediaries—demanding curbs on Iran's nuclear enrichment, missiles, and proxies—which Tehran rejected as "maximalist" but countered with its own terms, keeping diplomatic channels open through Oman, Egypt, and potential Pakistani-hosted talks. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days on March 26, signaling indirect negotiations are progressing amid Iranian missile attacks on Israel and US bases. Ongoing airstrikes, sanctions pressures, and mediation outcomes will dictate near-term probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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