Amid escalating US-Iran conflict sparked by February's US-Israeli strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by December 31 and 69% by April 30, reflecting recent Pentagon preparations for weeks-long ground operations short of full invasion. Key drivers include yesterday's arrival of 3,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli in the Middle East, deployments of 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and reports of up to 10,000 additional troops positioning for potential special operations raids on Iranian nuclear sites or Strait of Hormuz islands. Iran has warned of severe retaliation against any ground incursion, while Pakistan-hosted talks urge de-escalation; no boots-on-ground confirmed as of March 30, with March 31 market deadline looming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$51,523,947 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
8%
April 30
69%
December 31
77%
$51,523,947 Vol.
March 31
$35,548,540 Vol.
8%
April 30
$8,188,586 Vol.
69%
December 31
$5,716,175 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Iran conflict sparked by February's US-Israeli strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by December 31 and 69% by April 30, reflecting recent Pentagon preparations for weeks-long ground operations short of full invasion. Key drivers include yesterday's arrival of 3,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli in the Middle East, deployments of 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and reports of up to 10,000 additional troops positioning for potential special operations raids on Iranian nuclear sites or Strait of Hormuz islands. Iran has warned of severe retaliation against any ground incursion, while Pakistan-hosted talks urge de-escalation; no boots-on-ground confirmed as of March 30, with March 31 market deadline looming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$51,523,947Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Iran conflict sparked by February's US-Israeli strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by December 31 and 69% by April 30, reflecting recent Pentagon preparations for weeks-long ground operations short of full invasion. Key drivers include yesterday's arrival of 3,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli in the Middle East, deployments of 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and reports of up to 10,000 additional troops positioning for potential special operations raids on Iranian nuclear sites or Strait of Hormuz islands. Iran has warned of severe retaliation against any ground incursion, while Pakistan-hosted talks urge de-escalation; no boots-on-ground confirmed as of March 30, with March 31 market deadline looming.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Volume
$51,523,947Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran conflict sparked by February's US-Israeli strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability for US forces entering Iran by December 31 and 69% by April 30, reflecting recent Pentagon preparations for weeks-long ground operations short of full invasion. Key drivers include yesterday's arrival of 3,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli in the Middle East, deployments of 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and reports of up to 10,000 additional troops positioning for potential special operations raids on Iranian nuclear sites or Strait of Hormuz islands. Iran has warned of severe retaliation against any ground incursion, while Pakistan-hosted talks urge de-escalation; no boots-on-ground confirmed as of March 30, with March 31 market deadline looming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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