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Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Market icon
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

34% chance
Polymarket

$211,695 Vol.

34% chance
Polymarket

$211,695 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid heightened U.S. diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration, which reportedly demanded Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation as a precondition for negotiations (New York Times, March 16), Cuban officials explicitly rejected discussing the president's term (Reuters, March 20), bolstering trader consensus at 66% against his removal by June 30. No National Assembly sessions are scheduled to vote on leadership changes, and Díaz-Canel retains control as both president—re-elected in April 2023 for a term to 2028—and Communist Party first secretary. Speculation over successors like Raúl Castro persists amid economic crises and blackouts, but absent internal party signals or official announcements, markets reflect low odds of an imminent ouster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$211,695
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid heightened U.S. diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration, which reportedly demanded Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation as a precondition for negotiations (New York Times, March 16), Cuban officials explicitly rejected discussing the president's term (Reuters, March 20), bolstering trader consensus at 66% against his removal by June 30. No National Assembly sessions are scheduled to vote on leadership changes, and Díaz-Canel retains control as both president—re-elected in April 2023 for a term to 2028—and Communist Party first secretary. Speculation over successors like Raúl Castro persists amid economic crises and blackouts, but absent internal party signals or official announcements, markets reflect low odds of an imminent ouster.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$211,695
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 34% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 34¢, the market collectively assigns a 34% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" has generated $211.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" is 34% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 34% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.