Trader consensus prices "No" at 67.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the government's swift containment of mid-March unrest despite severe energy and economic pressures. Nationwide blackouts and food shortages, exacerbated by U.S. oil import blockades under President Trump following Venezuela's turmoil, triggered over 150 protests, including rare attacks on Communist Party offices where demonstrators chanted for freedom. Authorities arrested dozens, quelling riots, while President Díaz-Canel confirmed preliminary U.S. negotiations potentially easing sanctions without leadership change. Russian oil shipments provided short-term relief, underscoring external support and historical patterns of repression that have preserved regime stability amid dissent, with no evident military defections or unified opposition to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$130,308 Vol.
$130,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$130,308 Vol.
$130,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 67.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the government's swift containment of mid-March unrest despite severe energy and economic pressures. Nationwide blackouts and food shortages, exacerbated by U.S. oil import blockades under President Trump following Venezuela's turmoil, triggered over 150 protests, including rare attacks on Communist Party offices where demonstrators chanted for freedom. Authorities arrested dozens, quelling riots, while President Díaz-Canel confirmed preliminary U.S. negotiations potentially easing sanctions without leadership change. Russian oil shipments provided short-term relief, underscoring external support and historical patterns of repression that have preserved regime stability amid dissent, with no evident military defections or unified opposition to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$130,308End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 67.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the government's swift containment of mid-March unrest despite severe energy and economic pressures. Nationwide blackouts and food shortages, exacerbated by U.S. oil import blockades under President Trump following Venezuela's turmoil, triggered over 150 protests, including rare attacks on Communist Party offices where demonstrators chanted for freedom. Authorities arrested dozens, quelling riots, while President Díaz-Canel confirmed preliminary U.S. negotiations potentially easing sanctions without leadership change. Russian oil shipments provided short-term relief, underscoring external support and historical patterns of repression that have preserved regime stability amid dissent, with no evident military defections or unified opposition to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$130,308End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 67.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the government's swift containment of mid-March unrest despite severe energy and economic pressures. Nationwide blackouts and food shortages, exacerbated by U.S. oil import blockades under President Trump following Venezuela's turmoil, triggered over 150 protests, including rare attacks on Communist Party offices where demonstrators chanted for freedom. Authorities arrested dozens, quelling riots, while President Díaz-Canel confirmed preliminary U.S. negotiations potentially easing sanctions without leadership change. Russian oil shipments provided short-term relief, underscoring external support and historical patterns of repression that have preserved regime stability amid dissent, with no evident military defections or unified opposition to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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