Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean (R+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index) where Donald Trump carried over 75% in 2020 and Mitt Romney won by 50 points in 2012. Democrat Angela Sherrill, a community organizer who won her primary unopposed, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive polling, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Republican. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic amid ongoing early voting ahead of the November 5 general election; scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Lucas, or unexpected turnout surge among Democrats could challenge the frontrunner, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$16,845 Vol.
$16,845 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$16,845 Vol.
$16,845 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$16,845 Vol.
93%
民主党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean (R+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index) where Donald Trump carried over 75% in 2020 and Mitt Romney won by 50 points in 2012. Democrat Angela Sherrill, a community organizer who won her primary unopposed, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive polling, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Republican. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic amid ongoing early voting ahead of the November 5 general election; scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Lucas, or unexpected turnout surge among Democrats could challenge the frontrunner, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$16,845終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean (R+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index) where Donald Trump carried over 75% in 2020 and Mitt Romney won by 50 points in 2012. Democrat Angela Sherrill, a community organizer who won her primary unopposed, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive polling, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Republican. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic amid ongoing early voting ahead of the November 5 general election; scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Lucas, or unexpected turnout surge among Democrats could challenge the frontrunner, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,845終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean (R+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index) where Donald Trump carried over 75% in 2020 and Mitt Romney won by 50 points in 2012. Democrat Angela Sherrill, a community organizer who won her primary unopposed, trails significantly in fundraising and lacks competitive polling, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating the race Solid Republican. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this dynamic amid ongoing early voting ahead of the November 5 general election; scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, health issue for Lucas, or unexpected turnout surge among Democrats could challenge the frontrunner, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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