Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race prices the Democratic Party at a 75% implied probability of victory, reflecting frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's fundraising dominance—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, trailing only incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)'s totals—and internal polls from early March showing her narrow lead over the GOP freshman, who won by razor-thin margins in 2022 and 2024. This toss-up district, with an even partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, draws heavy Democratic resources via the DCCC's Red to Blue program announced February 23, alongside midterm patterns favoring challengers against the president's party. The July 21 primaries loom, pitting Mendoza against other Democrats while Ciscomani faces no GOP opposition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
75%
共和党
26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$38 Vol.
75%
共和党
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race prices the Democratic Party at a 75% implied probability of victory, reflecting frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's fundraising dominance—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, trailing only incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)'s totals—and internal polls from early March showing her narrow lead over the GOP freshman, who won by razor-thin margins in 2022 and 2024. This toss-up district, with an even partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, draws heavy Democratic resources via the DCCC's Red to Blue program announced February 23, alongside midterm patterns favoring challengers against the president's party. The July 21 primaries loom, pitting Mendoza against other Democrats while Ciscomani faces no GOP opposition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
音量
$38終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race prices the Democratic Party at a 75% implied probability of victory, reflecting frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's fundraising dominance—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, trailing only incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)'s totals—and internal polls from early March showing her narrow lead over the GOP freshman, who won by razor-thin margins in 2022 and 2024. This toss-up district, with an even partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, draws heavy Democratic resources via the DCCC's Red to Blue program announced February 23, alongside midterm patterns favoring challengers against the president's party. The July 21 primaries loom, pitting Mendoza against other Democrats while Ciscomani faces no GOP opposition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$38終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in Arizona's 6th Congressional District House race prices the Democratic Party at a 75% implied probability of victory, reflecting frontrunner JoAnna Mendoza's fundraising dominance—$2.9 million raised through late 2025, trailing only incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)'s totals—and internal polls from early March showing her narrow lead over the GOP freshman, who won by razor-thin margins in 2022 and 2024. This toss-up district, with an even partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, draws heavy Democratic resources via the DCCC's Red to Blue program announced February 23, alongside midterm patterns favoring challengers against the president's party. The July 21 primaries loom, pitting Mendoza against other Democrats while Ciscomani faces no GOP opposition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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