Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse's strong hold on WA-04, a district with R+22 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of a GOP House win on November 5. Newhouse cruised through Washington's top-two primary on August 6 with 62% despite intra-party pushback over his Trump impeachment vote, underscoring his enduring appeal among core voters. Democrat Bette Rylander, a political newcomer, lags in fundraising and visibility, mirroring 2022's 32-point Newhouse rout. Absent recent polls or catalysts in the past month, odds reflect historical base rates for safe red seats and low upset risk barring an October surprise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
84%
民主党
17%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
84%
民主党
$9,117 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse's strong hold on WA-04, a district with R+22 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of a GOP House win on November 5. Newhouse cruised through Washington's top-two primary on August 6 with 62% despite intra-party pushback over his Trump impeachment vote, underscoring his enduring appeal among core voters. Democrat Bette Rylander, a political newcomer, lags in fundraising and visibility, mirroring 2022's 32-point Newhouse rout. Absent recent polls or catalysts in the past month, odds reflect historical base rates for safe red seats and low upset risk barring an October surprise.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$9,117終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse's strong hold on WA-04, a district with R+22 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of a GOP House win on November 5. Newhouse cruised through Washington's top-two primary on August 6 with 62% despite intra-party pushback over his Trump impeachment vote, underscoring his enduring appeal among core voters. Democrat Bette Rylander, a political newcomer, lags in fundraising and visibility, mirroring 2022's 32-point Newhouse rout. Absent recent polls or catalysts in the past month, odds reflect historical base rates for safe red seats and low upset risk barring an October surprise.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,117終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse's strong hold on WA-04, a district with R+22 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability of a GOP House win on November 5. Newhouse cruised through Washington's top-two primary on August 6 with 62% despite intra-party pushback over his Trump impeachment vote, underscoring his enduring appeal among core voters. Democrat Bette Rylander, a political newcomer, lags in fundraising and visibility, mirroring 2022's 32-point Newhouse rout. Absent recent polls or catalysts in the past month, odds reflect historical base rates for safe red seats and low upset risk barring an October surprise.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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