Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors regime survival at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian regime fall by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of de facto power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier this year. Despite nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026—sparked by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a 42-day internet blackout—the regime has quashed unrest through executions, as seen in recent death penalties for four protesters on April 16. U.S. naval enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade since mid-April has held without breaches, while Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks persist amid IRGC insistence on retaining high-enriched uranium stockpiles. Absent mass defections or coordinated uprisings, historical resilience against dissent sustains these low collapse odds, though succession rifts under provisional leadership or escalation could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$31,938,134 Vol.
$31,938,134 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$31,938,134 Vol.
$31,938,134 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors regime survival at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian regime fall by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of de facto power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier this year. Despite nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026—sparked by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a 42-day internet blackout—the regime has quashed unrest through executions, as seen in recent death penalties for four protesters on April 16. U.S. naval enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade since mid-April has held without breaches, while Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks persist amid IRGC insistence on retaining high-enriched uranium stockpiles. Absent mass defections or coordinated uprisings, historical resilience against dissent sustains these low collapse odds, though succession rifts under provisional leadership or escalation could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$31,938,134End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors regime survival at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian regime fall by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of de facto power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier this year. Despite nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026—sparked by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a 42-day internet blackout—the regime has quashed unrest through executions, as seen in recent death penalties for four protesters on April 16. U.S. naval enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade since mid-April has held without breaches, while Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks persist amid IRGC insistence on retaining high-enriched uranium stockpiles. Absent mass defections or coordinated uprisings, historical resilience against dissent sustains these low collapse odds, though succession rifts under provisional leadership or escalation could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,938,134End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors regime survival at 91.5% "No" for an Iranian regime fall by June 30, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) effective consolidation of de facto power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier this year. Despite nationwide protests from late 2025 into January 2026—sparked by economic collapse, inflation exceeding 40%, and a 42-day internet blackout—the regime has quashed unrest through executions, as seen in recent death penalties for four protesters on April 16. U.S. naval enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade since mid-April has held without breaches, while Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks persist amid IRGC insistence on retaining high-enriched uranium stockpiles. Absent mass defections or coordinated uprisings, historical resilience against dissent sustains these low collapse odds, though succession rifts under provisional leadership or escalation could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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