Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Republic's seamless handling of President Ebrahim Raisi's fatal May 19 helicopter crash, which prompted a snap presidential election on June 28—where reformist Masoud Pezeshkian topped conservative Saeed Jalili, advancing to a July 5 runoff without unrest. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's authority endures, bolstered by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) loyalty amid suppressed "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests and de-escalated tensions with Israel following April's missile exchanges. U.S. sanctions persist, but economic pressures have not triggered mass uprising or institutional collapse ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$21,747,410 Vol.
$21,747,410 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$21,747,410 Vol.
$21,747,410 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Republic's seamless handling of President Ebrahim Raisi's fatal May 19 helicopter crash, which prompted a snap presidential election on June 28—where reformist Masoud Pezeshkian topped conservative Saeed Jalili, advancing to a July 5 runoff without unrest. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's authority endures, bolstered by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) loyalty amid suppressed "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests and de-escalated tensions with Israel following April's missile exchanges. U.S. sanctions persist, but economic pressures have not triggered mass uprising or institutional collapse ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$21,747,410End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Republic's seamless handling of President Ebrahim Raisi's fatal May 19 helicopter crash, which prompted a snap presidential election on June 28—where reformist Masoud Pezeshkian topped conservative Saeed Jalili, advancing to a July 5 runoff without unrest. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's authority endures, bolstered by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) loyalty amid suppressed "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests and de-escalated tensions with Israel following April's missile exchanges. U.S. sanctions persist, but economic pressures have not triggered mass uprising or institutional collapse ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,747,410End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Republic's seamless handling of President Ebrahim Raisi's fatal May 19 helicopter crash, which prompted a snap presidential election on June 28—where reformist Masoud Pezeshkian topped conservative Saeed Jalili, advancing to a July 5 runoff without unrest. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's authority endures, bolstered by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) loyalty amid suppressed "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests and de-escalated tensions with Israel following April's missile exchanges. U.S. sanctions persist, but economic pressures have not triggered mass uprising or institutional collapse ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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