Skip to main content

icon for Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

icon for Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

<1% chance
Polymarket

$3,538,911 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$3,538,911 Vol.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,538,911
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 22, 2025, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,538,911
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 22, 2025, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

icon for Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

3%
icon for Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

1%
icon for Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

5%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.