Name: Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
Start: 2025-06-15T22:48:20.771404Z
End: 2025-06-30T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Strait of Hormuz

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Iran's parliament has officially voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply, prompting immediate disruptions as ships turn back and oil tankers face blockades. This escalation, potentially in response to US actions, risks skyrocketing oil prices and global economic turmoil, with possible US Navy intervention looming.

Iran Parliament Approves Closure

BREAKING: Iranian parliament has just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. 

- 20% of global oil passes through the Strait

HERE’s what to expect if successful:

- Oil Prices could spike by 30–50%+ almost immediately

- Global Inflation likely Rises

- U.S. Gas Prices likely https://t.co/WC4dmeagRE

BREAKING:

Iranian parliament officially approves closure of Strait of Hormuz, blocking access to oil routes. https://t.co/v3LfqKh4qK

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian parliament approves closure of Hormuz Strait, blocking access to oil routes. https://t.co/YvOCXuTEhy

Oil from the Hormuz Strait supplies:

🇺🇸 5% of America's total oil supply
🇨🇳 50% of China's total oil supply

Iran would be crippling their ally China by closing off Hormuz. That is the last thing Iranians would want right now.

🚨BREAKING: Iran’s parliament approves closing the Strait of Hormuz, state TV reports. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait.

Major escalation https://t.co/Vhb5b7ciqq

The United States is now at war with Iran. 

Trump’s actions last night have escalated the conflict into an area of unprecedented danger. In the report below, I lay out the facts and what to expect next. 

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian parliament approves closure of Hormuz Strait, blocking https://t.co/zlaf46fjY5

BREAKING:

🇮🇷 Officially, Iran has started returning tankers to the Strait of Hormuz, expect oil prices to explode

Ships set to cross the Strait of Hormuz make a 180 degree U-Turn at ~9:15 AM ET this morning.

This was just minutes after Iran's parliament approved closing the https://t.co/kWDQdgxbWj

MAJOR BREAKING: IT SEEMS IRAN HAS OFFICIALLY CLOSED THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ 

Iran has started returning tankers to the Strait of Hormuz, ships set to cross the Strait of Hormuz make a 180 degree U-Turn at 9:15 AM ET this morning.

This was just minutes after Iran's parliament https://t.co/tkpCFPyGdN

🚨 #BREAKING: The Iranian Parliament has just ORDERED the closing of the Strait of Hormuz

OVER 20% of global oil production flows through the strait.

Might see US Navy intervention here. https://t.co/umfV1nPX9N

🚨 BREAKING: The  Iranian Parliament has just ordered the Strait of Hormuz Strait must be CLOSED. The Strait handles 20% of global daily oil shipments — its closure could send prices soaring. The step will come into effect, pending a final decision by Iran’s Supreme Council. https://t.co/1HvPg74Z9p

🚨BREAKING : 🇺🇸💥🇮🇷The first move in Iran’s retaliation could be to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where nearly a quarter of the world’s oil trade flows. This narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, and any disruption here would send oil https://t.co/VAyQGpNM3l

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian Parliament approves closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US strikes. 

Roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through this strategic waterway. https://t.co/PJ25RpT34a

BREAKING:

The Iranian parliament just approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but left the final decision to the security authorities https://t.co/39BwaUV0lz

MAJOR news from Iran:

Iran's parliament officially approves CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972.

If approved by Iran's top security body, shipments of 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) https://t.co/DH7jnB7RjS

Kristen Welker: “If Iran disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz… Would that be a red line for the United States?” 

Vice President Vance: “Our biggest red line is the Iranian nuclear weapons program… [If they disrupt the Strait of Hormuz] I think that would be suicidal, https://t.co/0mWMI81XNt

BREAKING 🔴

Al Arabiya: Iran’s parliament approves plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, pending final approval from security authorities.

This won’t end well for them. https://t.co/HOeJ8YLlIH

🚨BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz has been closed down by Iran officially. https://t.co/82d3lbTUFu

🚨 BREAKING: Iranian parliament just voted to CLOSE the STRAIT OF HORMUZ, where nearly a quarter of global oil flows through - Press TV

Big mistake if finalized. https://t.co/Mbcy1edE7D

Iran’s jamming GPS in the Strait of Hormuz, messing with ~970 ships, per Windward. UKMTO confirms the interference. Faulty AIS coordinates are screwing up navigation in the Persian Gulf. The IRGC threatens to shut the strait down in hours. https://t.co/kdMJvshOGC

A huge oil tanker is burning in the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran has said that no ship will pass through the Strait of Hormuz unless Iran gives permission.
 Bab al-Mandab is already closed by the Houthis. The  Arabian Sea is now in danger. All shipping in this sea is starting to stop. https://t.co/Qi9On9fOKr

🚨 BREAKING: Iranian official: 

No fuel shipments to Europe will pass through the Strait of Hormuz.🇮🇷

🚨 JUST IN: Iranian Parliament APPROVES closure of the Strait of Hormuz 🇮🇷🔥
One of the world’s most critical oil routes is now BLOCKED.
Global markets will feel this in hours https://t.co/tlZwj7382q

BREAKING:

The United States says China should pressure Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/VOPYd7SNom

A historic picture:

Ships set to cross the Strait of Hormuz make a 180 degree U-Turn at ~9:15 AM ET this morning.

This was just minutes after Iran's parliament approved closing the Strait.

Wild times. https://t.co/X9FxuywyQy https://t.co/bi9jeQvw98

Here's how important the Strait of Hormuz really is:

1. 20% of the world's oil moves through a strait just 21 miles wide

2. A single blockade of Hormuz could spike oil to $150+ overnight

3. Hormuz sees more oil traffic daily than the Panama and Suez Canals combined

4. 35% of https://t.co/bi9jeQw3YG

BIG BREAKING NEWS 🚨 Iran's parliament approves closure of Strait of Hormuz after US strikes 😱

It is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Crude Oil Price is expected to rise globally 😳

Around 20% of the World's oil and gas supply — including shipments from https://t.co/Xg5hOLeCCe

Iranian Parliament Backs Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Oil Market Braces For Turmoil https://t.co/stJuXpQsML

🚨 BIG BREAKING NEWS 

Iranian parliament votes to CLOSE the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint where around 25% of the world’s oil passes daily. https://t.co/6eluzHVr7b

You couldn't make it up..

First Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz..

Then a vessel losing control in the Suez Canal..

Crude oil &gt; $80 https://t.co/J4sCZDPwaV

❗ Iran has changed tactics in the fight against Western influence and has begun mass GPS jamming in the Strait of Hormuz instead of seizing tankers

According to Windward Maritime AI™, Iran is jamming GPS signals amid the conflict with Israel, which has already led to the https://t.co/4q9bDqvo5S

Talk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is back.

You’ve heard this before but this time feels different.

Here’s a fast, clear thread:
🔹 What the Strait is
🔹 Why it matters
🔹 Who controls what
🔹 How Iran could disrupt it
🔹 What happens if it spirals

1/24🧵👇. https://t.co/MpVuncnNTG

Activity in the strait of Hormuz, imagine it empty when the pool is closed. https://t.co/OQ5nd3tSIR

The Iranian Parliament just voted to close the strait of Hormuz.

Only 5% of US oil goes through it, but 50% of China's does, Iran's ally, not to mention Middle East countries.

This would be a massive strategic blunder and further isolate the rogue state https://t.co/PbQmeAtbvu

Iran has issued a stark warning to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route, in response to potential US military strikes, risking severe disruption to 25-30% of the world's oil and gas trade. Reports also confirm an airstrike on a military pier at Bandar Abbas, with an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warship burning, escalating tensions in the region.

Iran Threatens Hormuz Closure

Initial reports of an airstrike on a military pier at the Port of Bandar Abbas in Southern Iran, on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, with several sources indicating that a warship of the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is currently burning following a strike https://t.co/Kp00xy1UDw

🇮🇷 Activity in the Strait of Hormuz last Friday. Iran threatens to close the traffic.

The data includes tanker traffic only.

This would throw the world oil market into chaos. https://t.co/piCTgbWIPQ

Here’s how crowded the Strait of Hormuz was last Friday.

The data only includes tanker traffic.

Source: Craig Taylor https://t.co/e9U6JAIupZ

This is the traffic of oil tanker ships in Strait of Hormuz.

25-30% of global oil and natural gas trade goes through this Strait, which is only 35 km wide at the narrowest point.

#Iran #SaudiArabia #Qatar https://t.co/8JwXkgMqde

🚨⚡️UNUSUAL

The movement of oil tankers, cargo ships, and condensate vessels through the Arabian Gulf in a single day is documented, demonstrating the importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

From the Kepler Petroleum Institute https://t.co/O3Q0ZQeYU2

How crowded the Strait of Hormuz was last Friday.

The data only includes tanker traffic.

Source: Craig Taylor https://t.co/ieUeVLzEUD

If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz it will cripple many economies https://t.co/3BWskvuMSk

The United States will turn the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab al-Mandab into a battlefield if it attempts to bomb Iran.
This means a regional  and possibly global  war. https://t.co/YjecAFg4fx

🚨⚡️ BREAKING:

The Iranian regime’s channel is broadcasting footage of ship and oil tanker traffic in the Arabian Gulf, highlighting the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz 

—: a clear, sharp warning aimed directly at the Americans. https://t.co/BS16tL3ETi

ईरान ने चेतावनी दी है कि: "यदि अमेरिका युद्ध में शामिल होता है, तो हम होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य/Strait को बंद कर देंगे" 

Strait of Hormuz से प्रतिदिन 100+ तेल और मालवाहक जहाज गुजरते हैं और पूरी दुनियां का 26% तेल इसी रास्ते से होकर गुजरता है।

इसका बंद होना मतलब ईंधन संकट, बाजार में https://t.co/wRNC0FIYrB

So: if the US attacks Iran =&gt; high probability Strait of Hormuz &amp; Bab el Mandeb will be closed. https://t.co/h6LyF4LY1Q https://t.co/KbBKtcue5U

As Western nations back Israel, Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz, upend global economy https://t.co/j51D7ws58U

⚡️ Iran says it will close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of US strikes

🚨⚡️ BREAKING:

The Iranian regime’s channel is broadcasting footage of ship and oil tanker traffic in the Arabian Gulf, highlighting the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz 

—: a clear, sharp warning aimed directly at the Americans. https://t.co/mujGtC3Inb

🚨🇮🇷 WHY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS IMPORTANT TO THE WORLD

On any normal day, this 21-mile-wide stretch sees a parade of crude, LNG, and cargo heading to the world’s gas tanks and store shelves.

Roughly 1 in 5 barrels of global oil passes through here - so when Iran rattles its https://t.co/XX0Q9yZdvi https://t.co/ygkWon8ZjB

Original source (I believe) that is circulating claims an attack a little while ago on Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/ysyOt3R1bo

Iran has launched symbolic missile strikes with advance warnings to avoid casualties, indicating a strong desire to deescalate tensions with the U.S. while maintaining a firm stance. Discussions of a potential nuclear deal with the U.S. are gaining traction, with odds of an agreement surging to 44%, though tensions with Israel remain unresolved and continue to escalate.

Iran Signals Deescalation

BREAKING: Odds of a U.S. x Iran nuclear deal surge, as the U.S. &amp; Iran seek to deescalate.

44% chance.

qatar ministry of defense: no injuries or deaths from iranian strikes. 

iran is hoping to deescalate.

Looks like Iran wants to deescalate. They matched our symbolic attack with their symbolic attack. (Reportedly both sides gave advance notice to avoid causalities.)

The question is will Israel and the neocons accept peace? https://t.co/LErdu8bemq

If Al Udeid airbase in Qatar is the target that Iran has chosen, it seems that they are signalling an intent to deescalate with the US. Al Udeid was very publicly emptied over the last week or so. On June 5 there were approx 40 aircraft at the base, this morning, there is 1.

There are two conflicts. US-Iran seems contained and may deescalate from here. Israel-Iran is separate and still escalating

Looks like Trump is winning. Winning = avoiding getting sucked into a war. 

It looks like Iran and Trump managed to deescalate this. If that is true, it’s an amazing achievement.

So Iran’s attack was telegraphed in advance to Qatar. Most missiles were intercepted. So far no casualties or major damage. This appears to be a symbolic proportional response, perhaps seeking to deescalate, unless it’s a misdirection. We’ll see. How Trump responds will be key https://t.co/mKSUB7lOQd

Iran launching six missiles (to match the number the US launched) with plenty of pre-warning and no casualties is definitely a symbolic response while wanting to actually deescalate and negotiate, in my opinion.

99% of geopolitics is just performance art to save face

Iran is Kayfabe'ing to show the world they aren't a punk-ass-bitch, while low key signaling to the US they want things to deescalate. If Trump responds with even greater force, he should be considered the aggressor in this https://t.co/JHrqjtbDnF

The risk of Iranian oil refineries being taken out &amp; them closing and mining the Strait of Hormuz is perceived by risk takes to be greatly diminished.  We shall see if the Iranians deescalate, I’m not convinced this tepid response is actually of a sign of #Iran showing its hand.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2023?

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually.

Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify.

Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify.

The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran for combat operations at any point between June 21, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Tehran, the Iranian capital, is experiencing a crisis as a historic drought has led the local water supply to run low. You can read more about that here: https://www.newsweek.com/irans-capital-running-dry-in-historic-water-crisis-10987433.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the national government of Iran, the government of Tehran Province, or the government of Tehran Municipality, including the Tehran City Council, orders a major evacuation of the city of Tehran due to the ongoing water crisis by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A major evacuation order is defined as an official government order mandating or instructing a majority of Tehran’s residents to leave the city. The order must explicitly reference the ongoing water shortage or associated infrastructure failure as a primary reason for evacuation to qualify for resolution.

A limited evacuation order affecting only a minority of the residential population of the city of Tehran, or an evacuation order due primarily to reasons other than the ongoing water crisis will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strike on Gulf State by December 31?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Israel between September 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Israeli citizens or entities which do not directly target the Israeli state or members of the Israeli government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Israel within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Israel by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Israel (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Israel unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Yemen by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between November 24, 2025, 11:30PM Israel Standard Time (IST) and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.

For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Market Context

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Rules

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Market Context

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

About

Related