Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any official diplomatic signals or announcements from European governments indicating intent to expel an Israeli ambassador before March 31. Despite heightened tensions from Israel's military actions in Gaza and recent strikes on Iran—including Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Tel Aviv as a symbolic rebuke—no EU country has summoned Israel's envoy, declared them persona non grata, or escalated to expulsion, a rare step reserved for severe breaches like espionage. With only days left in the resolution window, structural barriers like bilateral trade ties and NATO considerations bolster confidence. Late-breaking escalations, such as a major diplomatic incident or UN/ICJ ruling, could theoretically shift odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$117,105 Vol.
$117,105 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$117,105 Vol.
$117,105 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any official diplomatic signals or announcements from European governments indicating intent to expel an Israeli ambassador before March 31. Despite heightened tensions from Israel's military actions in Gaza and recent strikes on Iran—including Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Tel Aviv as a symbolic rebuke—no EU country has summoned Israel's envoy, declared them persona non grata, or escalated to expulsion, a rare step reserved for severe breaches like espionage. With only days left in the resolution window, structural barriers like bilateral trade ties and NATO considerations bolster confidence. Late-breaking escalations, such as a major diplomatic incident or UN/ICJ ruling, could theoretically shift odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ET
Volume
$117,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any official diplomatic signals or announcements from European governments indicating intent to expel an Israeli ambassador before March 31. Despite heightened tensions from Israel's military actions in Gaza and recent strikes on Iran—including Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Tel Aviv as a symbolic rebuke—no EU country has summoned Israel's envoy, declared them persona non grata, or escalated to expulsion, a rare step reserved for severe breaches like espionage. With only days left in the resolution window, structural barriers like bilateral trade ties and NATO considerations bolster confidence. Late-breaking escalations, such as a major diplomatic incident or UN/ICJ ruling, could theoretically shift odds, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$117,105End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.8% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any official diplomatic signals or announcements from European governments indicating intent to expel an Israeli ambassador before March 31. Despite heightened tensions from Israel's military actions in Gaza and recent strikes on Iran—including Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Tel Aviv as a symbolic rebuke—no EU country has summoned Israel's envoy, declared them persona non grata, or escalated to expulsion, a rare step reserved for severe breaches like espionage. With only days left in the resolution window, structural barriers like bilateral trade ties and NATO considerations bolster confidence. Late-breaking escalations, such as a major diplomatic incident or UN/ICJ ruling, could theoretically shift odds, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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