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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$90,504 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$90,504 Vol.

Polymarket

Elaine Culotti

$0 Vol.

92%

Eric Swalwell

$10,248 Vol.

73%

Steve Hilton

$0 Vol.

57%

Chad Bianco

$0 Vol.

36%

Tom Steyer

$17,265 Vol.

28%

Matt Mahan

$9,368 Vol.

22%

Katie Porter

$0 Vol.

16%

Xavier Becerra

$0 Vol.

8%

Betty Yee

$0 Vol.

6%

Ché Ahn

$14,574 Vol.

6%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,260 Vol.

5%

Tony Thurmond

$0 Vol.

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

4%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

4%

Dylan Colbert

$11,135 Vol.

3%

Ryan Tillman

$757 Vol.

3%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$11,446 Vol.

3%

Daniel Mercuri

$8,135 Vol.

3%

Nicki Minaj

$0 Vol.

3%

Derek Grasty

$0 Vol.

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$0 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

12%

Leonard Jackson

$0 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$0 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$0 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$0 Vol.

2%

Kyle Langford

$0 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$0 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$5,315 Vol.

2%

Thunder Parley

$0 Vol.

1%

Ramsey Robinson

$0 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$0 Vol.

1%

Ian Calderon

$0 Vol.

1%

David Thelen

$0 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$0 Vol.

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's top-two primary for governor on March 3, 2026, advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to the November general election, favoring Democrats in the deep-blue state amid term limits barring incumbent Gavin Newsom from running again. Recent PPIC polling from September shows Rep. Katie Porter leading at 17% among declared and potential candidates, followed by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis at 14%, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 11%, and Senate President pro Tempore Toni Atkins at 8%, with Republicans like Richard Grenell at 7%; the fragmented Democratic field leaves room for shifts via fundraising, endorsements, or debates. No major catalysts in the past month, but voter registration deadlines and early campaign events loom as key milestones.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$90,504
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's top-two primary for governor on March 3, 2026, advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to the November general election, favoring Democrats in the deep-blue state amid term limits barring incumbent Gavin Newsom from running again. Recent PPIC polling from September shows Rep. Katie Porter leading at 17% among declared and potential candidates, followed by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis at 14%, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 11%, and Senate President pro Tempore Toni Atkins at 8%, with Republicans like Richard Grenell at 7%; the fragmented Democratic field leaves room for shifts via fundraising, endorsements, or debates. No major catalysts in the past month, but voter registration deadlines and early campaign events loom as key milestones.

California's top-two primary for governor on March 3, 2026, advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to the November general election, favoring Democrats in the deep-blue state amid term limits barring incumbent Gavin Newsom from running again. Recent PPIC polling from September shows Rep. Katie Porter leading at 17% among declared and potential candidates, followed by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis at 14%, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 11%, and Senate President pro Tempore Toni Atkins at 8%, with Republicans like Richard Grenell at 7%; the fragmented Democratic field leaves room for shifts via fundraising, endorsements, or debates. No major catalysts in the past month, but voter registration deadlines and early campaign events loom as key milestones.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 73%, followed by "Steve Hilton" at 57%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $90.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Eric Swalwell" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 57%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.