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Tech·Big Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 86%

Google 7%

OpenAI 3.8%

DeepSeek 1.6%

Polymarket

$2,420,060 Vol.

Anthropic 86%

Google 7%

OpenAI 3.8%

DeepSeek 1.6%

Polymarket

$2,420,060 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$47,171 Vol.

86%

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Google

$39,438 Vol.

7%

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OpenAI

$486,857 Vol.

4%

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DeepSeek

$1,491,835 Vol.

2%

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xAI

$71,096 Vol.

1%

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Alibaba

$27,892 Vol.

1%

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Z.ai

$26,703 Vol.

<1%

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Meituan

$30,089 Vol.

<1%

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ByteDance

$62,593 Vol.

<1%

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Moonshot

$32,910 Vol.

<1%

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Amazon

$32,880 Vol.

<1%

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Baidu

$29,255 Vol.

<1%

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Mistral

$41,973 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability for the top AI model by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—edging Gemini 3.1 Pro with a near-1500 Elo score—following its February 2026 release boasting superior coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities via a 1M-token context window. March developments amplified this lead: Anthropic overtook ChatGPT in U.S. app store rankings, doubled signups, and rolled out voice mode, persistent memory, and Claude Code integration, fueling enterprise adoption and 73% head-to-head wins over rivals. Google's 6.5% reflects its tight benchmark proximity and potential Gemini updates, while OpenAI's 3.8% stems from trailing GPT-5 variants; watch for April model announcements or leaderboard shifts that could challenge the frontrunner.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability for the top AI model by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—edging Gemini 3.1 Pro with a near-1500 Elo score—following its February 2026 release boasting superior coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities via a 1M-token context window. March developments amplified this lead: Anthropic overtook ChatGPT in U.S. app store rankings, doubled signups, and rolled out voice mode, persistent memory, and Claude Code integration, fueling enterprise adoption and 73% head-to-head wins over rivals. Google's 6.5% reflects its tight benchmark proximity and potential Gemini updates, while OpenAI's 3.8% stems from trailing GPT-5 variants; watch for April model announcements or leaderboard shifts that could challenge the frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability for the top AI model by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—edging Gemini 3.1 Pro with a near-1500 Elo score—following its February 2026 release boasting superior coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities via a 1M-token context window. March developments amplified this lead: Anthropic overtook ChatGPT in U.S. app store rankings, doubled signups, and rolled out voice mode, persistent memory, and Claude Code integration, fueling enterprise adoption and 73% head-to-head wins over rivals. Google's 6.5% reflects its tight benchmark proximity and potential Gemini updates, while OpenAI's 3.8% stems from trailing GPT-5 variants; watch for April model announcements or leaderboard shifts that could challenge the frontrunner.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability for the top AI model by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—edging Gemini 3.1 Pro with a near-1500 Elo score—following its February 2026 release boasting superior coding, reasoning, and agentic capabilities via a 1M-token context window. March developments amplified this lead: Anthropic overtook ChatGPT in U.S. app store rankings, doubled signups, and rolled out voice mode, persistent memory, and Claude Code integration, fueling enterprise adoption and 73% head-to-head wins over rivals. Google's 6.5% reflects its tight benchmark proximity and potential Gemini updates, while OpenAI's 3.8% stems from trailing GPT-5 variants; watch for April model announcements or leaderboard shifts that could challenge the frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

29%
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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

44%
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Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

97%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 86%, followed by "Google" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the best AI model end of April?" has generated $2.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model end of April?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model end of April?" is "Anthropic" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.