Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 97.4% implied probability for the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable Elo rating of 1503—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1505 but well ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (around 1491) and others. Style Control On evaluations prioritize substantive reasoning over superficial stylistic preferences, reinforcing Claude's competitive positioning amid high battle volumes in recent weeks. No major model releases or capability demos have disrupted this order since mid-March, cementing trader confidence. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes boosting xAI or OpenAI entries, or unannounced tweaks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 97.5%
xAI 1.4%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$513,627 Vol.
$513,627 Vol.

Anthropic
98%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

OpenAI
<1%

<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI 1.4%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$513,627 Vol.
$513,627 Vol.

Anthropic
98%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

OpenAI
<1%

<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 97.4% implied probability for the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's stable Elo rating of 1503—trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1505 but well ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (around 1491) and others. Style Control On evaluations prioritize substantive reasoning over superficial stylistic preferences, reinforcing Claude's competitive positioning amid high battle volumes in recent weeks. No major model releases or capability demos have disrupted this order since mid-March, cementing trader confidence. Realistic challenges include a late surge in user votes boosting xAI or OpenAI entries, or unannounced tweaks before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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