Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February release, bolstered by March upgrades to Sonnet 4.6 and expanded agentic features like longer context windows. A March 27 leak revealing Claude Mythos's edge in cybersecurity benchmarks further solidified this lead, outpacing rivals in Elo scores for text, coding, and design tasks. xAI trails at 7% with Grok 4.20 beta showing reasoning gains but lagging overall, while Google (4.7%) and OpenAI (2.1%) reflect quieter updates amid a competitive March release flurry. Late surprises from xAI's supercomputer scaling or OpenAI's GPT-5.x could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 83%
xAI 7.0%
Google 4.8%
OpenAI 2.1%
$788,423 Vol.
$788,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
83%
xAI
7%
5%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 83%
xAI 7.0%
Google 4.8%
OpenAI 2.1%
$788,423 Vol.
$788,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$18,827 Vol.
83%
xAI
$128,067 Vol.
7%
$128,063 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$86,638 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$222,222 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$59,856 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$26,060 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$7,370 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$7,312 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$27,115 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$62,440 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$6,831 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,623 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February release, bolstered by March upgrades to Sonnet 4.6 and expanded agentic features like longer context windows. A March 27 leak revealing Claude Mythos's edge in cybersecurity benchmarks further solidified this lead, outpacing rivals in Elo scores for text, coding, and design tasks. xAI trails at 7% with Grok 4.20 beta showing reasoning gains but lagging overall, while Google (4.7%) and OpenAI (2.1%) reflect quieter updates amid a competitive March release flurry. Late surprises from xAI's supercomputer scaling or OpenAI's GPT-5.x could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$788,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February release, bolstered by March upgrades to Sonnet 4.6 and expanded agentic features like longer context windows. A March 27 leak revealing Claude Mythos's edge in cybersecurity benchmarks further solidified this lead, outpacing rivals in Elo scores for text, coding, and design tasks. xAI trails at 7% with Grok 4.20 beta showing reasoning gains but lagging overall, while Google (4.7%) and OpenAI (2.1%) reflect quieter updates amid a competitive March release flurry. Late surprises from xAI's supercomputer scaling or OpenAI's GPT-5.x could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$788,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February release, bolstered by March upgrades to Sonnet 4.6 and expanded agentic features like longer context windows. A March 27 leak revealing Claude Mythos's edge in cybersecurity benchmarks further solidified this lead, outpacing rivals in Elo scores for text, coding, and design tasks. xAI trails at 7% with Grok 4.20 beta showing reasoning gains but lagging overall, while Google (4.7%) and OpenAI (2.1%) reflect quieter updates amid a competitive March release flurry. Late surprises from xAI's supercomputer scaling or OpenAI's GPT-5.x could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions