Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 57.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 31—excelling in coding benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-Bench Verified. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released February 19, trails closely at 26% odds with superior reasoning across multimodal tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags due to comparatively weaker arena performance. March's flurry of frontier releases from xAI's Grok 4 iterations and DeepSeek narrowed gaps but reinforced Anthropic's edge in user-voted evaluations. Watch Q2 announcements for Claude Sonnet 4.7, Gemini 3.1 updates, or GPT-5.5 previews that could realign competitive positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 57.2%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.5%
$2,952,049 Vol.
$2,952,049 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

26%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
4%

DeepSeek
2%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 57.2%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.5%
$2,952,049 Vol.
$2,952,049 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

26%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
4%

DeepSeek
2%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 57.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's recent surge to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of March 31—excelling in coding benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-Bench Verified. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released February 19, trails closely at 26% odds with superior reasoning across multimodal tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags due to comparatively weaker arena performance. March's flurry of frontier releases from xAI's Grok 4 iterations and DeepSeek narrowed gaps but reinforced Anthropic's edge in user-voted evaluations. Watch Q2 announcements for Claude Sonnet 4.7, Gemini 3.1 updates, or GPT-5.5 previews that could realign competitive positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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