Trader consensus assigns a 91.6% implied probability to no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30, driven by the absence of any announced bilateral summit plans nearly three months after President Trump's January inauguration. Recent diplomacy has relied on phone calls—like one in early March amid Iran oil market volatility—and U.S. envoy meetings with Putin on Ukraine reconstruction and Trump's "Board of Peace" initiative, where Moscow remains cautious despite initial invitations. Ongoing disagreements over Ukraine ceasefires, territorial disputes, and NATO postures have stalled in-person arrangements, with no scheduled summits or neutral venue agreements. Scenarios to upend this include a sudden de-escalation breakthrough enabling a victory summit or urgent arms control negotiations, though current signals point to prolonged proxy engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo meeting by June 30 91.7%
Gulf country 1.4%
Other EU country 1.3%
Turkey 1.1%
$4,664,582 Vol.
$4,664,582 Vol.
No meeting by June 30
92%
Gulf country
1%
Other EU country
1%
Turkey
1%
Russia
1%
United States
1%
Other
1%
China
1%
Belarus
<1%
Switzerland
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Australia
<1%
Finland
<1%
Japan
<1%
South Korea
<1%
No meeting by June 30 91.7%
Gulf country 1.4%
Other EU country 1.3%
Turkey 1.1%
$4,664,582 Vol.
$4,664,582 Vol.
No meeting by June 30
92%
Gulf country
1%
Other EU country
1%
Turkey
1%
Russia
1%
United States
1%
Other
1%
China
1%
Belarus
<1%
Switzerland
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Australia
<1%
Finland
<1%
Japan
<1%
South Korea
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 91.6% implied probability to no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30, driven by the absence of any announced bilateral summit plans nearly three months after President Trump's January inauguration. Recent diplomacy has relied on phone calls—like one in early March amid Iran oil market volatility—and U.S. envoy meetings with Putin on Ukraine reconstruction and Trump's "Board of Peace" initiative, where Moscow remains cautious despite initial invitations. Ongoing disagreements over Ukraine ceasefires, territorial disputes, and NATO postures have stalled in-person arrangements, with no scheduled summits or neutral venue agreements. Scenarios to upend this include a sudden de-escalation breakthrough enabling a victory summit or urgent arms control negotiations, though current signals point to prolonged proxy engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions