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What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?

Market icon

What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?

$479,910 Vol.

Dec 8, 2025
Polymarket

$479,910 Vol.

Polymarket

ChatGPT 10+ times

$13,760 Vol.

No

OpenAI 4+ times

$36,973 Vol.

No

Sora 3+ times

$10,251 Vol.

No

API / AGI

$37,683 Vol.

No

Elon / Musk

$10,069 Vol.

No

Nvidia / Bubble

$8,232 Vol.

No

Meme

$5,104 Vol.

No

Silicon Valley / Nerd

$2,936 Vol.

No

Polymarket / Bet

$12,277 Vol.

Yes

Deep Fake

$8,095 Vol.

No

Terminator / Movie

$22,002 Vol.

No

Robot / Robotic

$14,479 Vol.

No

Creativity / Artist

$5,838 Vol.

No

Car / Tesla

$280,872 Vol.

No

Trump / Election

$3,267 Vol.

No

Crypto / Bitcoin

$8,071 Vol.

No

Sam Altman is scheduled to appear on the December 8 broadcast of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: https://www.theverge.com/news/837942/sam-altman-is-going-on-the-tonight-show-next-week

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or NBC, or otherwise is not released by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.
Volume
$479,910
End Date
Dec 8, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 6:25 PM ET
Sam Altman is scheduled to appear on the December 8 broadcast of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: https://www.theverge.com/news/837942/sam-altman-is-going-on-the-tonight-show-next-week This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman says the listed term at any point during this episode. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded videos are aired where Sam Altman is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count towards this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If this appearance is definitively cancelled by Sam Altman or NBC, or otherwise is not released by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Polymarket / Bet" at 100%, followed by "ChatGPT 10+ times" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?" has generated $479.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?" is "Polymarket / Bet" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ChatGPT 10+ times" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.