Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's commanding lead in recent polls drives trader consensus favoring a Republican win at 81%, reflecting his track record of bipartisan appeal in the heavily Democratic state. Scott cruised through the August 13 Republican primary unopposed, while Democrat nominee Esther Aguilera emerged from a crowded primary amid reports of low enthusiasm and fundraising shortfalls. The latest VTDigger/CV News poll shows Scott at 51% to Aguilera's 24%, with independents—crucial in Vermont's open primary system—breaking heavily for the incumbent. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying his path to a fifth term ahead of the November 5 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
81%
Democrat
19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$2,250 Vol.
81%
Democrat
$5,189 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's commanding lead in recent polls drives trader consensus favoring a Republican win at 81%, reflecting his track record of bipartisan appeal in the heavily Democratic state. Scott cruised through the August 13 Republican primary unopposed, while Democrat nominee Esther Aguilera emerged from a crowded primary amid reports of low enthusiasm and fundraising shortfalls. The latest VTDigger/CV News poll shows Scott at 51% to Aguilera's 24%, with independents—crucial in Vermont's open primary system—breaking heavily for the incumbent. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying his path to a fifth term ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,440End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's commanding lead in recent polls drives trader consensus favoring a Republican win at 81%, reflecting his track record of bipartisan appeal in the heavily Democratic state. Scott cruised through the August 13 Republican primary unopposed, while Democrat nominee Esther Aguilera emerged from a crowded primary amid reports of low enthusiasm and fundraising shortfalls. The latest VTDigger/CV News poll shows Scott at 51% to Aguilera's 24%, with independents—crucial in Vermont's open primary system—breaking heavily for the incumbent. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying his path to a fifth term ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,440End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's commanding lead in recent polls drives trader consensus favoring a Republican win at 81%, reflecting his track record of bipartisan appeal in the heavily Democratic state. Scott cruised through the August 13 Republican primary unopposed, while Democrat nominee Esther Aguilera emerged from a crowded primary amid reports of low enthusiasm and fundraising shortfalls. The latest VTDigger/CV News poll shows Scott at 51% to Aguilera's 24%, with independents—crucial in Vermont's open primary system—breaking heavily for the incumbent. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying his path to a fifth term ahead of the November 5 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions