Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's candidacy for a sixth term has solidified trader consensus at 80% odds for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting his track record of landslide wins—including a 52-point margin in 2024—in deep-blue Vermont despite supermajorities in the Democrat-controlled legislature. Recent Morning Consult polling from early February confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering his incumbency advantage amid Democrats' thin field, highlighted by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement as the first challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, with the August 11 primaries as the next key milestone before early voting ramps up. Novelty independent bids, like 14-year-old Dean Roy securing general ballot access last week, pose no evident threat to party-line outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
80%
Democrat
18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$2,370 Vol.
80%
Democrat
$5,189 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's candidacy for a sixth term has solidified trader consensus at 80% odds for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting his track record of landslide wins—including a 52-point margin in 2024—in deep-blue Vermont despite supermajorities in the Democrat-controlled legislature. Recent Morning Consult polling from early February confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering his incumbency advantage amid Democrats' thin field, highlighted by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement as the first challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, with the August 11 primaries as the next key milestone before early voting ramps up. Novelty independent bids, like 14-year-old Dean Roy securing general ballot access last week, pose no evident threat to party-line outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's candidacy for a sixth term has solidified trader consensus at 80% odds for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting his track record of landslide wins—including a 52-point margin in 2024—in deep-blue Vermont despite supermajorities in the Democrat-controlled legislature. Recent Morning Consult polling from early February confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering his incumbency advantage amid Democrats' thin field, highlighted by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement as the first challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, with the August 11 primaries as the next key milestone before early voting ramps up. Novelty independent bids, like 14-year-old Dean Roy securing general ballot access last week, pose no evident threat to party-line outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott's candidacy for a sixth term has solidified trader consensus at 80% odds for a Republican victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting his track record of landslide wins—including a 52-point margin in 2024—in deep-blue Vermont despite supermajorities in the Democrat-controlled legislature. Recent Morning Consult polling from early February confirmed Scott as America's most popular governor for the 14th straight quarter, bolstering his incumbency advantage amid Democrats' thin field, highlighted by economist Amanda Janoo's March 10 announcement as the first challenger. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, with the August 11 primaries as the next key milestone before early voting ramps up. Novelty independent bids, like 14-year-old Dean Roy securing general ballot access last week, pose no evident threat to party-line outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions