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US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

Market icon

US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?

$23,382,786 Vol.

Feb 13, 2026
Polymarket

$23,382,786 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

February 6

$22,688,334 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

February 13

$694,452 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Official diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy on behalf of their government. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, meetings through a third-party relaying messages (not including translators), or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,382,786
End Date
Feb 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Official diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy on behalf of their government. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, meetings through a third-party relaying messages (not including translators), or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "February 6" at 100%, followed by "February 13" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?" has generated $23.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?" is "February 6" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "February 13" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US x Iran diplomatic meeting in person by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.