The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via mediators like Pakistan around March 25, demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a freeze on Tehran's missile program, and nuclear stockpile resolutions, but Iranian officials dismissed it as "maximalist and unreasonable," issuing a counterproposal while insisting no negotiations are underway. Ongoing military actions continue unabated, including US strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets, Israeli operations accelerating amid de-escalation fears, and Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states. Gulf nations express cautious optimism, with Oman and Egypt facilitating prior mediation efforts; traders eye potential hosted talks in Turkey or Pakistan as key catalysts, though public rejections signal persistent diplomatic hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$61,750,086 Vol.
March 31
2%
April 7
8%
April 15
17%
April 30
32%
May 31
48%
June 30
60%
December 31
73%
$61,750,086 Vol.
March 31
$38,968,586 Vol.
2%
April 7
$1,423,577 Vol.
8%
April 15
$6,009,749 Vol.
17%
April 30
$6,700,292 Vol.
32%
May 31
$2,271,044 Vol.
48%
June 30
$2,351,783 Vol.
60%
December 31
$531,410 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via mediators like Pakistan around March 25, demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a freeze on Tehran's missile program, and nuclear stockpile resolutions, but Iranian officials dismissed it as "maximalist and unreasonable," issuing a counterproposal while insisting no negotiations are underway. Ongoing military actions continue unabated, including US strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets, Israeli operations accelerating amid de-escalation fears, and Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states. Gulf nations express cautious optimism, with Oman and Egypt facilitating prior mediation efforts; traders eye potential hosted talks in Turkey or Pakistan as key catalysts, though public rejections signal persistent diplomatic hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,750,086Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via mediators like Pakistan around March 25, demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a freeze on Tehran's missile program, and nuclear stockpile resolutions, but Iranian officials dismissed it as "maximalist and unreasonable," issuing a counterproposal while insisting no negotiations are underway. Ongoing military actions continue unabated, including US strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets, Israeli operations accelerating amid de-escalation fears, and Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states. Gulf nations express cautious optimism, with Oman and Egypt facilitating prior mediation efforts; traders eye potential hosted talks in Turkey or Pakistan as key catalysts, though public rejections signal persistent diplomatic hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,750,086Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via mediators like Pakistan around March 25, demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a freeze on Tehran's missile program, and nuclear stockpile resolutions, but Iranian officials dismissed it as "maximalist and unreasonable," issuing a counterproposal while insisting no negotiations are underway. Ongoing military actions continue unabated, including US strikes on over 10,000 Iranian targets, Israeli operations accelerating amid de-escalation fears, and Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states. Gulf nations express cautious optimism, with Oman and Egypt facilitating prior mediation efforts; traders eye potential hosted talks in Turkey or Pakistan as key catalysts, though public rejections signal persistent diplomatic hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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