The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$61,969,071 Vol.
March 31
1%
April 7
9%
April 15
17%
April 30
32%
May 31
48%
June 30
61%
December 31
74%
$61,969,071 Vol.
March 31
$39,103,309 Vol.
1%
April 7
$1,467,485 Vol.
9%
April 15
$6,033,933 Vol.
17%
April 30
$6,712,681 Vol.
32%
May 31
$2,271,802 Vol.
48%
June 30
$2,353,852 Vol.
61%
December 31
$532,910 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$61,969,071Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,969,071Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The US-Iran conflict, now in its second month since surprise US-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, shows no signs of de-escalation despite diplomatic overtures. Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries like Oman and Turkey on March 25, issuing a counterproposal amid ongoing airstrikes and Houthi involvement escalating regional tensions on March 28. President Trump signaled potential further action today by floating US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials deny direct talks. Mediators continue backchannel efforts, but mutual demands on sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and military halts remain unresolved, with trader consensus reflecting persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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