Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, marked by Iran's rejection of American demands to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, underpin the 84.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. Recent talks in Geneva on February 26 collapsed amid mutual recriminations, with US envoy Steve Witkoff reporting Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment for civilian purposes and prior sanctions relief, while Tehran countered that Washington lacked seriousness. IAEA monitoring shows Iran's stockpile—over 440 kg at 60% purity, enough for multiple warheads—continues growing unchecked. Absent breakthroughs like renewed diplomacy or coercion via sanctions or military posturing, traders price in persistent deadlock through spring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NEW
$127,917 Vol.
NEW
$127,917 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$127,917 Vol.
NEW
$127,917 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, marked by Iran's rejection of American demands to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, underpin the 84.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. Recent talks in Geneva on February 26 collapsed amid mutual recriminations, with US envoy Steve Witkoff reporting Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment for civilian purposes and prior sanctions relief, while Tehran countered that Washington lacked seriousness. IAEA monitoring shows Iran's stockpile—over 440 kg at 60% purity, enough for multiple warheads—continues growing unchecked. Absent breakthroughs like renewed diplomacy or coercion via sanctions or military posturing, traders price in persistent deadlock through spring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$127,917End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, marked by Iran's rejection of American demands to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, underpin the 84.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. Recent talks in Geneva on February 26 collapsed amid mutual recriminations, with US envoy Steve Witkoff reporting Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment for civilian purposes and prior sanctions relief, while Tehran countered that Washington lacked seriousness. IAEA monitoring shows Iran's stockpile—over 440 kg at 60% purity, enough for multiple warheads—continues growing unchecked. Absent breakthroughs like renewed diplomacy or coercion via sanctions or military posturing, traders price in persistent deadlock through spring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$127,917End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, marked by Iran's rejection of American demands to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, underpin the 84.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. Recent talks in Geneva on February 26 collapsed amid mutual recriminations, with US envoy Steve Witkoff reporting Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment for civilian purposes and prior sanctions relief, while Tehran countered that Washington lacked seriousness. IAEA monitoring shows Iran's stockpile—over 440 kg at 60% purity, enough for multiple warheads—continues growing unchecked. Absent breakthroughs like renewed diplomacy or coercion via sanctions or military posturing, traders price in persistent deadlock through spring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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