US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets have intensified since February 28, 2026, now in the conflict's sixth week with US forces reporting casualties and sinking Iranian naval vessels. Over the past 48 hours, US special operations teams conducted ground insertions inside Iran for combat search-and-rescue after an F-15 was downed, rescuing one pilot while ongoing efforts seek a second crew member west of Tehran. Pentagon deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and close air support assets signal preparations for potential escalation to larger ground operations around oil hubs like Kharg Island, amid Iranian threats of retaliation and unconfirmed US proposals for a temporary pause. Traders weigh these developments against diplomatic off-ramps and historical reluctance for full invasions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$132,884,489 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
100%
December 31
100%
$132,884,489 Vol.
April 30
$44,111,142 Vol.
100%
December 31
$12,809,256 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets have intensified since February 28, 2026, now in the conflict's sixth week with US forces reporting casualties and sinking Iranian naval vessels. Over the past 48 hours, US special operations teams conducted ground insertions inside Iran for combat search-and-rescue after an F-15 was downed, rescuing one pilot while ongoing efforts seek a second crew member west of Tehran. Pentagon deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and close air support assets signal preparations for potential escalation to larger ground operations around oil hubs like Kharg Island, amid Iranian threats of retaliation and unconfirmed US proposals for a temporary pause. Traders weigh these developments against diplomatic off-ramps and historical reluctance for full invasions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$132,884,489Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets have intensified since February 28, 2026, now in the conflict's sixth week with US forces reporting casualties and sinking Iranian naval vessels. Over the past 48 hours, US special operations teams conducted ground insertions inside Iran for combat search-and-rescue after an F-15 was downed, rescuing one pilot while ongoing efforts seek a second crew member west of Tehran. Pentagon deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and close air support assets signal preparations for potential escalation to larger ground operations around oil hubs like Kharg Island, amid Iranian threats of retaliation and unconfirmed US proposals for a temporary pause. Traders weigh these developments against diplomatic off-ramps and historical reluctance for full invasions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Volume
$132,884,489Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets have intensified since February 28, 2026, now in the conflict's sixth week with US forces reporting casualties and sinking Iranian naval vessels. Over the past 48 hours, US special operations teams conducted ground insertions inside Iran for combat search-and-rescue after an F-15 was downed, rescuing one pilot while ongoing efforts seek a second crew member west of Tehran. Pentagon deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and close air support assets signal preparations for potential escalation to larger ground operations around oil hubs like Kharg Island, amid Iranian threats of retaliation and unconfirmed US proposals for a temporary pause. Traders weigh these developments against diplomatic off-ramps and historical reluctance for full invasions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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