Market icon

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

$89,656 Vol.

8% chance

Rules

Additional context

Updated May 20

We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 1 PM ET. If no statement is issued at that time, then there will be no clarification by the Polymarket team. The orderbook will be cleared at 1 PM ET regardless of whether a clarification is made.

The "Usage Restrictions" provision of this market applies only to laws that limit how AI systems themselves can be used. The "Take It Down Act" targets the distribution of content (e.g., nonconsensual deepfake imagery), not the use of AI systems, and thus does not qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.

- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.

- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.

- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$89,656

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

shield

Beware of external links.

$89,656 Vol.

Market icon

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

8% chance

About

Additional context

Updated May 20

We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 1 PM ET. If no statement is issued at that time, then there will be no clarification by the Polymarket team. The orderbook will be cleared at 1 PM ET regardless of whether a clarification is made.

The "Usage Restrictions" provision of this market applies only to laws that limit how AI systems themselves can be used. The "Take It Down Act" targets the distribution of content (e.g., nonconsensual deepfake imagery), not the use of AI systems, and thus does not qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.

- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.

- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.

- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$89,656

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final