Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.5% implied probability for the US downing a Mexican cartel drone by March 31, driven by the complete absence of any verified reports from US defense or border agencies like CBP or DoD, despite routine monitoring of cartel drone activity along the southwest border used for smuggling and surveillance. No official statements, military briefings, or credible media confirmations have emerged, and such an event would likely trigger immediate public disclosure amid US-Mexico security cooperation. With the deadline approaching and no escalation in cross-border drone threats, traders see minimal precedent for proactive shoot-downs. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden high-threat incursion or unreported policy change, though current evidence points to restraint.